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【出版时间及名称】：2010年日本食品行业展望
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
Somewhat bearish on food stocks in 2010 relative to TOPIX
Through December 9, food stocks underperformed TOPIX by 1.1% during
2009 to date but outperformed the index by 5.2% over the past three months.
However, since food stocks show an inverse correlation with the Industrial
Production Index, and our scenario for 2010 is for an economic recovery, we
think the sector will underperform TOPIX. That said, food stocks show a
strong correlation with exchange rates, and the outperformance over the past
three months has been driven by the yen’s appreciation, so it is also possible
that food stocks would outperform if the yen strengthens unexpectedly.
• Sector earnings strong in FY2009, likely to remain firm in FY2010 despite
slowing momentum
The 34 major food companies collectively forecast strong FY2009 operating
profit, with guidance averaging out to a 15.3% YoY increase. The major
factors behind this strength include (1) management policies designed to
control declines in unit prices (i.e., the companies are not giving in easily to
pressure for lower retail prices) and adapt to a deflationary environment, and
(2) the benefits of low raw materials prices. In FY2010, however, we expect
deflation to continue and raw materials prices to rebound, so we think that
fewer companies will benefit from low raw materials prices and that earnings
momentum will slow. That said, we think sector earnings will remain
fundamentally firm, considering that food companies have developed the
ability to resist deflation, that the risk of substantially higher raw materials
prices is limited, and that the strong yen should help reduce costs. Risks
include a slowdown in food sales due to deteriorating consumer sentiment.
• Key themes for picking stocks
We think the key themes for 2010 will be (1) equilibrium between unit prices
and raw materials prices, (2) low P/Bs, (3) growth in Asia, and (4) M&A, with
the first two important from a defensive perspective and the latter two
important from a defensive growth perspective. With regard to the first theme,
we highlight Yamazaki Baking, Nippon Meat Packers, Asahi Breweries, and
Kirin Holdings, as we think these companies will see unit prices hold steady or
decline at a slower pace, while at the same time benefiting from low raw
materials prices. With regard to the second theme, we highlight Ajinomoto
and Nippon Meat Packers, as these companies are likely to see profits rise in
FY2010 but have P/Bs below 1x. With regard to the third theme, we highlight
Yakult Honsha, Fuji Oil, Ajinomoto, and Asahi Breweries, as these companies
all have growth potential in Asia. With regard to the fourth theme, we
highlight Kirin Holdings, which is in talks to merge with Suntory Holdings.
• Recommended stocks
Our three top picks are Kirin Holdings, Yamazaki Baking, and Ajinomoto.
Our near-term stance on Kirin is cautious in view of the risks associated with
the announcement of a merger ratio with Suntory (see our December 1
report, Analysis of the Kirin-Suntory Merger). However, even if the
merger ratio proves somewhat disappointing, we think there will be significant
synergies, so we consider the stock attractive over the medium term. Of all
sector stocks, our expectations for earnings in FY2010 are highest for
Yamazaki Baking. We foresee a major improvement in earnings momentum,
thanks to a bottoming of unit prices, lower raw materials costs, and the
rehabilitation of Fujiya. Ajinomoto is a value stock, but we are bullish on it
because we expect its profits to rise, thanks to improved earnings quality in the
food segment and a recovery in the amino acids business in FY2010.
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