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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国基本金属行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：31
【目录或简介】：
Channel checks on demand. The feedback from our proprietary monthly
survey suggests that: 1) end-user demand for basic materials in November
was slightly better than producers’ expectations. The MoM trend for forward
order books of finished goods appears to be softening, as the percentage of
respondents who saw a sequential improvement fell from 50% in November
to 20% in December; and 3) materials demand is mixed, with an
improvement in cement and coal, but unchanged for steel. The percentage
of producers seeing improving MoM demand is 25% for steel mills (flat
versus November), 80% for cement producers (up from 40% in November)
and 80% for coal producers (up from 40% in November). In addition, our
preliminary check suggests producers are looking for industry demand to
grow by 10-15% for the machinery industry, 10-15% for the auto industry,
flat for property sales, and 0-10% for home appliances, less than 10% for
steel, 10-20% for cement, and 5% for coal, mostly positive yet decelerating
growth versus 2009E.
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Steel – softening production and flat spot prices.
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Coal – strength ahead of expectation.
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Cement – going into the quiet season.
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Aluminium – understated apparent demand.
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Alumina – stable pricing.
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Copper – imports normalising.
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