山西证券-2010年度宏观经济报告：后金融危机时期的经济走势将更加趋于平稳-091225

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【名称及出版时间】：山西证券-2010年度宏观经济报告：后金融危机时期的经济走势将更加趋于平稳-091225.PDF
【来源】：山西证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：37
【内容提要】：
目录
一．2009 年中国宏观经济运行特征·················································································································6
1.1货币再杠杆化··········································································································································6
1.2增长结构失衡··········································································································································7
二．2010 年中国宏观经济政策探讨·················································································································8
2.1经济平稳过渡与政策方向维持不变··········································································································8
2.2调整经济结构和促进内需消费···············································································································10
2.3货币和财政政策回归正常化··················································································································12
2.4区域经济政策普惠化·····························································································································14
2.5产业行业政策差异化·····························································································································15
三．2010 年中国投资增速平稳下滑···············································································································17
3.1中央投资或放缓····································································································································17
3.2房地产开发投资继续平稳上升···············································································································18
3.3工业制造业投资增速或有所回落···········································································································19
四．2010 年中国外贸平稳复苏······················································································································20
4.1出口增速有望快速上升 ·························································································································20
4.2进口增速平稳回升·································································································································21
4.3人民币小幅度升值·································································································································22
五．2010 年中国工业效益有望平稳上升 ·······································································································23
5.1工业增加值保持高速增长······················································································································23
5.2主要工业品产量有望保持平稳增速········································································································24
5.3工业效益稳步回升·································································································································25
六．2010 年中国消费有望加速······················································································································26
6.1 中国消费基础较好································································································································26
6.2 中国消费结构存在改进之处 ·················································································································27
6.3 中国消费政策支持消费转型 ·················································································································27
七．2010 年中国通胀形势不容乐观···············································································································29
7.1 CPI 走势呈现“N”型 ······························································································································· 29
7.2 PPI 加速反弹呈前高后低走势···············································································································30
7.3货币现象助推物价超预期反弹···············································································································30
八．2010 年世界经济展望·····························································································································31

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