The Determinants of Currency Crises: A Political Economy Approach(2009)

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【资料名称】：The Determinants of Currency Crises: A Political Economy Approach
【资料作者】：Bjorn Rother
【出版社】：    Palgrave Macmillan
【简介及目录】：   

Product Details  

• Hardcover: 272 pages
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan (May 12, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0230221815

Review  
This book cuts to the heart of the policy making process by focusing onhow political factors affect exchange rate decisions. By groundinginsight from economics, economic history and political science in aconsistent methodological framework, the author moves beyond the narrowfocus of much of current economic research to produce a compellingaccount of the political economy of exchange rate decision making.(Dr.Domenico Lombardi, President, The Oxford Institute for Economic Policy)
  
Product Description   
This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence ofcurrency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, arigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.

A lot of research has been carried out on currency crises, buttheexisting literature largely fails to adequately recognize the roleofpolitics in creating financial turbulence. This book explains theroleof political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, usinganeclectic approach that blends case study methodology, arigoroustheoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.

A lot of research has been carried out on currency crises, buttheexisting literature largely fails to adequately recognize the roleofpolitics in creating financial turbulence. This book explains theroleof political factors in the occurrence of currency crises. Itstartsout with a discussion of political developments in fourprominentcrisis cases, including Turkey and Argentina in the early2000s, beforediscussing various extensions of a workhorse model of theeconomicsliterature, two of which are original, to show how upcomingelections,intra-governmental conflict, and lobbying activity can impactthestability of an exchange rate regime. The econometric analysis usesadiverse sample of 69 countries over 1975-97 to determine whethertheinclusion of political variables can make a difference incrisisprediction without adding too much complexity, compared withstandardearly-warning-systems models that rely exclusively onmacroeconomicfundamentals.

This book provides a thorough and in-depth report, seeking totranslateconcepts from the discipline of political science into thelanguage ofeconomics. It is essential reading for all interested ininternationalpolitical economy and financial crises.

About the Author   
BJÖRNROTHER is an Economist at the International Monetary FundinWashington, D.C., and worked previously as a consultant withMckinsey& Company Inc. He holds a Doctorate in Economics from the FreeUniversity of Berlin.

Table of Contents
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
Acknowledgments ix
1 Introduction 1
2 Some Clues from History 7
2.1 Introduction 7
2.2 Ending gold convertibility in the 1930s 9
2.3 Coalition bickering in Turkey, 2000–2001 14
2.4 Meltdown in Argentina, 1991–2002 19
2.5 Emerging political patterns 26
3 Political-Economy Crisis Models 31
3.1 Introduction 31
3.2 A basic second-generation model 33
3.2.1 The credibility problem of currency pegs 34
3.2.2 Two types of commitment devices 39
3.3 Uncertainty and the role of elections 44
3.4 A fiscal veto player 51
3.4.1 Currency crises and fiscal policy decisions 54
3.4.2 The scope for intra-governmental conflict 64
3.4.3 A stochastic fiscal target 68
3.5 Lobbying and exchange rate stability 74
4 The Role of Politics in Crisis Prediction 84
4.1 Introduction 84
4.2 Literature survey 86
4.3 Data set and empirical strategy 91
4.3.1 Country sample and crisis measure 92
4.3.2 The choice of regressors 95
4.3.3 Empirical strategy 1004.4 Key findings 102
4.4.1 Descriptive statistics 103
4.4.2 Political-economy logit models 107
4.5 Robustness checks 119
4.6 Extensions 123
4.6.1 The link between elections and crises 123
4.6.2 The link between left Governments and crises 126
5 Conclusion 128
Appendix A Deriving the Supply Function 136
Appendix B Survey of Econometric Studies 138
Appendix C Data Issues 146
Notes 151
Bibliography 171
Index 183

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