英文文献:Competitiveness of Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Compared to US Corn Ethanol-巴西甘蔗乙醇与美国玉米乙醇的竞争力
英文文献作者:Crago, Christine Lasco,Khanna, Madhu,Barton, Jason,Giuliani, Eduardo,Amaral, Weber
英文文献摘要:
Corn ethanol produced in the US and sugarcane ethanol produced in Brazil are the world’s leading sources of biofuel. Current US biofuel policies create both incentives and constraints for the import of ethanol from Brazil, and together with the competitiveness and greenhouse gas intensity of sugarcane ethanol compared to corn ethanol will determine the extent of these imports. This study analyzes the supply-side determinants of this competitiveness and compares the greenhouse gas intensity of corn ethanol and sugarcane ethanol delivered to US ports. We find that while the cost of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil is lower than that of corn ethanol in the US, the inclusion of transportation costs for the former and co-product credits for the latter changes their relative competitiveness. We also find that the relative cost of ethanol in the US and Brazil is highly sensitive to the prevailing exchange rate and prices of feedstocks. At an exchange rate of US$1 = R$2.15 the cost of corn ethanol is 15% lower than the delivered cost of sugarcane ethanol at a US port. Sugarcane ethanol has lower GHG emissions than corn ethanol but a price of over $113 per ton of CO2 is needed to affect competitiveness.
美国生产的玉米乙醇和巴西生产的甘蔗乙醇是世界上主要的生物燃料来源。美国目前的生物燃料政策对从巴西进口乙醇产生了激励和限制,再加上甘蔗乙醇相对于玉米乙醇的竞争力和温室气体排放强度,将决定这些进口的程度。本研究分析了这种竞争力的供给侧决定因素,并比较了运送到美国港口的玉米乙醇和甘蔗乙醇的温室气体强度。我们发现,尽管巴西的甘蔗乙醇生产成本低于美国的玉米乙醇,但将前者的运输成本和后者的副产品信用计入其中,改变了它们的相对竞争力。我们还发现,美国和巴西乙醇的相对成本对当前汇率和原料价格高度敏感。以1美元= 2.15雷亚尔的汇率计算,玉米乙醇的成本比甘蔗乙醇在美国港口的交货成本低15%。甘蔗乙醇的温室气体排放量比玉米乙醇低,但要影响竞争力,每吨二氧化碳的价格必须超过113美元。


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