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【出版时间及名称】：2010年中国银行业展望
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：35
【目录或简介】：
2010F: another bullish year
􀁣 Positive 3Q09 results; 4Q09F residual checking quarter
China bank’s 3Q09 results highlighted a NIM rebound from 2Q09’s bottom, along
with steady asset quality. Due to seasonality, we think 4Q09F will be quiet in terms
of loan growth, and a quarter of checks and balances for full-year results by banks.
􀁤 Stage set for another strong year for China banks
We forecast 25-30% y-y earnings growth in 2010F at China banks, driven by:
1) RMB9-10trn of new loans; 2) a moderate NIM rebound; and 3) benign asset
quality trends. As far as timing goes, we recommend that investors overweight
China banks ahead of buoyant January 2010 loan growth. Since banks’ lending is
front-loaded — all the more so with increased tightening risk in 2010F — we think
bank shares will do well in 1Q10F. Over the full year, we believe high-beta banks
such as CITIC and BOC will outperform.
􀁥 Risks for 2010F: 1) asymmetrical rate hike; and 2) equity raising
We see a likelihood of an asymmetrical rate hike, such as one (but only one)
27bps hike on the deposit side only and/or no hike in long-term lending rates. The
impact on banks should be moderate, we believe. In addition, after rapid growth in
2009, banks will need to raise equity to sustain growth in the next 2-3 years. Inside
we provide detailed estimates for capital raising, which we expect in 2H10F.
􀁦 Raising earnings forecasts and price targets
We revise up our earnings forecasts following the 3Q09 results. Key changes:
1) slight changes in NIM forecasts for 2009F and 2010F; and 2) significantly lower
credit costs in 2009-11F. As a result of the increases in EPS for 2009-11F, and the
better medium-term earnings outlook, our price targets are also raised.
􀁧 Stock picks: high-beta stocks should outperform
We favour banks with relatively large NIM upside potential, sufficient capital levels,
and appealing valuations. Our top picks are unchanged: CITIC and BOC.
We also reaffirm our BUY calls on CCB and ICBC.
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