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英文文献：Tail Dependence among Agricultural Insurance Indices: The Case of Iowa County-Level Rainfalls-农业保险指标之间的尾部依赖:以爱荷华州县级降雨量为例
英文文献作者：Liu, Pu,Miranda, Mario J.
英文文献摘要：
Index insurance has been promoted as a cost-effective risk management alternative for agricultural producers in developing countries. In this paper, we ask whether spatially separated weather variables commonly used in index insurance design, such as rainfall at different weather stations within a defined geographical area, are more highly correlated at the tails. As a case study, we assess the degree of tail dependence exhibited by Iowa June county-level rainfalls using copulas. We search among various candidate bivariate copulas and, using goodness-of-fit for copulas, attempt to identify the copula structures that best explain the nature of dependence among rainfalls in adjacent counties. Our results provide strong evidence that lower tail dependence exists in most of adjacent county-level rainfalls in Iowa. The results also suggest that patterns of tail dependence differ across counties.
指数保险已被推广为发展中国家农业生产者的一种成本效益高的风险管理替代方案。在本文中，我们提出在指数保险设计中常用的空间分离的天气变量，如某一特定地理区域内不同气象站的降雨量，是否在尾部具有更高的相关性。作为个案研究，我们利用copulas评估爱荷华州6月县级降雨表现出的尾部依赖程度。我们在各种候选的双变量连系中进行搜索，并利用连系的拟合优度，试图找出最能解释相邻县降雨依赖性质的连系结构。结果表明，爱荷华州大部分邻近县级降雨存在较低的尾依赖。结果还表明，不同县之间的尾部依赖模式也不同。
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