【出版时间及名称】:2010年美国IT硬件行业前景展望
【作者】:瑞士信贷
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:102
【目录或简介】:
Table of Contents
Introduction 4
A Review of 2009 Performance 4
Our Entry Positioning on the Key Subsectors for 2010 5
Our View on the PC Sector Is Increasingly Optimistic 5
Within Enterprise, We Believe a 2009 Budget Flush Will Extend into a Sharp 2010
Recovery 8
Top Ten Issues to Watch for 2010 11
1. Understanding the Cloudy Logic Behind Next Gen Data Centers 11
2. Building a Shopping List for Hardware M&A 15
3. Some Initial Thoughts on the Apple Tablet 18
4. The Commercial PC Refresh Is On 19
5. 2010 PC Pricing Could Be Much Tamer 21
6. HP Printing Supplies Could Recover More Sharply than Investors Expect 23
7. Servers for 2010: Cyclical Positives Counter Secular Headwinds in the Near-Term 24
8. The Cyclical Nature of HW Company Services Margins 27
9. Apple Should Finally Test Lower Notebook Price Points 29
10. Apple Could Offer More Free Software, Possibly Including Free Mac OS Upgrades
31
Industry Primer and Long-Term Framework 33
Personal Computers 33
Unit Growth Has Been Healthy Over the Past Decade, Though Pricing Tends to
Dampen Revenue Growth 34
Digging Into the Pricing Trends 35
The Premium Categories Have Now Fully Retreated, with Netbooks Taking Over 37
We Forecast Unit Improvements 38
The Three-Stage Recovery Model 40
Stage 1: The (Developed Market) Consumer Recovery 41
Stage 2: The Emerging Market Recovery 41
Stage 3: The Corporate Recovery 42
The Shift to Mobility Continues to Shift Share Away from Whitebox Vendors 43
The Historical Evolution of the Optimal PC Distribution Model 45
The Rise of Indirect Distribution: 1981–1995 46
Direct Distribution and the “Dell Effect”: 1996–2003 46
Back to the Future, Hybrid Distribution Reigns Supreme: 2004 to the Present 47
Sources of Competitive Advantage for PC Vendors 50
Apple: The High-Profile Industry Exception 50
Printing 51
Inkjet Printers 52
Laser Printers 55
Printer Economics and Sources of Competitive Advantage 57
Servers 59
From Big Iron to Industry Standard 61
Big Iron Servers and the Core of the Datacenter 61
UNIX Servers 61
The Economics of the UNIX Market 62
Mainframes 64
The Economics of Mainframes and Why They Matter 65
Sources of Competitive Advantage in Big Iron Servers 66
Industry Standard Servers 67
The Economics and Sources of Competitive Advantage for the Industry Standard
Server Market 69
Blade Servers: Melding the Economics of ISS and Big Iron 71
HP and IBM Dominate the Blade Server Market 73
Blade Servers Could Represent the Primary Source of Server Revenue and Profit
Growth 75
The Economics of Blade Servers 76
Sources of Competitive Advantage in the Blade Server Market 76
Enterprise Storage 78
Digitized Data Continues to Grow at a Rapid Clip 80
Subsystems and Direct Attached Storage 82
The Rise of Networked Storage 84
Types of Networked Storage 86
Network-Attached Storage 88
Unifying SAN and NAS 90
Emerging Technologies 90
The Economics and Sources of Competitive Advantage for Enterprise Storage 93
Disaggregated Computing Necessitates Networked Storage 97