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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国应用程序行业前景展望
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：64
【目录或简介】：
We believe '10 will see the return of new initiatives with a further shift to SaaS &
Cloud Computing as buyers intensively prioritize better, cheaper, faster
software/SaaS, with lingering risk aversion to heavy customization, favoring
instead departmental deployments. We see enterprise spend increasing for new
initatives in areas such as CRM/customer service and talent management with IT
spend focused on efficiencies with investment in internal virtualization, SOA
transformations rebranded as private clouds, and trials of IaaS & PaaS.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
salesforce.com (CRM.N),USD74.50 Buy
Synchronoss (SNCR.OQ),USD15.89 Buy
SuccessFactors (SFSF.OQ),USD18.26 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Application software CapEx likely targeted; spending still hinges on ROI
While we anticipate return of some transformational larger projects within some
areas, we believe increased spending will be focused within department budgets
where ROI & comparable deployments have proven highly successful. Spending
priorities are likely to include improving customer focus (Service, eCommerce,
SFA), retaining and upgrading talent, R&D, and doing more for less (collaboration,
spend management, etc.). We see 2010 as including much uncertainty and expect
people “playing it safe” although larger ticket purchases/bigger rollouts will likely
increase as the year progresses. Hot technology trends and SaaS accelerants
include: Smartphones with location-based apps, advancements in Cloud Platforms
(App Engine, Azure, & Force.com) and browsers, and increased awareness as the
number of investible SaaS companies increases significantly with IPO activity.
Stocks with the strongest pent-up distribution leverage for upside in ‘10?
With the economic stabilization and improvement in 2H09 we have seen
sequential growth rates improve by almost 5 pts on average from 1H09, including
average quarterly y/y billings growth for our SaaS coverage increasing to 13%
in3Q09 from a low of 1% in 1Q09 and average traditional company license
revenue growth rates rising (albeit still negative) from 2Q09-4Q09. With an outlook
for continued economic expansion into 2010, we have studied in this report the
pent-up distribution leverage of the stocks due to macro-sensitivity and distribution
(sales and marketing) capacity. While the methodology followed has limitations,
such as we do not expect sales and marketing revenue generating efficiency to
return to 2007 levels in 1Q10 as the analysis assumes, the relative analysis we
think is insightful to relative leverage. The results point to the highest potential for
upside revenue generation due to excess distribution capacity in stocks such as
CRM, SFSF (SaaS), and PRO, PMTC (traditional).
Top ideas: intersection of alpha, distribution leverage, and
valuation/expectations
We highlight in this report three stocks as investment ideas that we believe have
the best balance of business-specific drivers, distribution leverage, and
valuation/street expectations. These are CRM, SFSF, and SNCR. All three target a
high priority ’10 spend areas. CRM and SFSF exhibited the highest upside from
distribution leverage while also showing company specific momentum at
favorable valuations. SNCR, tied to activation of mobile devices offers attractive
growth at current valuation. Common risk factors include competitive entrants and
strong macro sensitivity to negative shocks in the near-term. This report changes
price targets and estimates for several companies under coverage. For a detailed
listing of these changes, see Fig. 3 on pg 4.
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