德意志银行马骏评论央行上调存款准备金率

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China's RRR hike: beginning of a tightening cycleThe PBOC announced the first increase in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) since June 2008. We view this as a milestone that ends the current expansionary monetary policy. This RRR increase of 0.5ppt is broadly in line with our forecast of monetary policy trajectory since October 2009, but is somewhat earlier than market expectations. This move should soak up liquidity of over RMB200bn. Going forward, we think the PBOC will likely raise the RRR by another 100bps in the remainder of this year, and will likely start the rate hike cycle from Q2. Although the PBOC did not explain this policy move, we think the obvious reasons are: (1) CPI inflation has been accelerating at a faster-than-expected pace in recent weeks. We expect December CPI inflation to reach 2%yoy, a 3.8ppt rise from July. Given the rapid increase in inflation, inflation expectation has also become a more serious challenge to monetary policy. (2) Bank lending surged to RMB600bn in the first week of January. This trend is worrying and prompted the PBOC to take earlier actions to deter the loan growth momentum. We expect more aggressive window guidance to goalong with the warning sent via this RRR hike. (3) FX reserve accumulation has been fast and led to growing liquidity and an increase in the excess reserve ratio. (4) The very sharp increase in yoy export growth, to 18% in December, also contributed to the confidence of the policy makers in external demand recovery, which helps reduce opposition to monetary tightening.We think the initial market impact of this RRR hike will be somewhat negative, especially on properties, banks, and commodities. Although the direct impact of a 0.5ppt rise in RRR on the real economy and banks' earnings is minimal, it will be viewed by many investors as the beginning of more impactful monetary tightening. We advise investors to stay cautious in the near term.

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关键词：存款准备金率 德意志银行 存款准备金 准备金率 德意志 准备金率 存款 央行 德意志银行 马骏

看起来有点难度

相关词条：马骏，德意志银行，准备金率，央行，存款

  

中国的存款准备金加息：一开始收紧中国人民银行宣布自2008年6月的存款准备金率首次出现增长。我们认为这是一个里程碑，结束当前的扩张性的货币政策。这0.5个百分点增加大致符合我们的货币政策轨迹预测，因为2009年10月，但有点早于市场预期。此举应该吸收了流动性。展望未来，我们认为央行可能会再提高，在今年余下的时间，并可能会在第二季度开始加息周期。虽然中国人民银行没有解释这项政策时，我们认为，明显的原因是：（1）消费者物价指数一直处于加速快于预期，最近几周的步伐。我们预计12月份消费物价指数上升2％，达到按年，从7月3.8个百分点上升。鉴于通货膨胀率迅速增加，通货膨胀率的预期也成为一个更严峻的挑战货币政策。 （2）银行贷款升至在1月的第一周。这种趋势令人担忧，并促使央行采取早期行动，以遏止贷款增长的势头。我们期待更积极的窗口指导与警告通过此皿诅上涨发送。 （三）外汇的储备积累了快速增长，并导致流动性和在超额准备金比率增加。 （4）在出口增长同比大幅上升，在12月的18％，也导致了外部需求的复苏，这有助于减少货币反对的政策制定者的信心认为这皿诅初步市场的影响，加息将会有所不利，特别是在财产，银行和商品。虽然在0.5个百分点t上升，对实体经济和银行收入的直接影响是最小的，将被许多投资者更多的影响力开始收紧货币政策。我们建议投资者继续留在短期内持谨慎态度。

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