《住房供给与泡沫》英文论文Housing supply and housing bubbles

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1 论文标题
Housing supply and housing bubbles
2 作者信息
Edward L. Glaeser a,c, Joseph Gyourkob,c,∗, Albert Saizb
3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
Journal of Urban Economics 64 (2008) 198–217
4 摘要
Like many other assets, housing prices are quite volatile relative to observable changes in fundamentals.
If we are going to understand boom-bust housing cycles, we must incorporate housing supply. In this
paper, we present a simple model of housing bubbles that predicts that places with more elastic housing
supply have fewer and shorter bubbles, with smaller price increases. However, the welfare consequences
of bubbles may actually be higher in more elastic places because those places will overbuild more
in response to a bubble. The data show that the price run-ups of the 1980s were almost exclusively
experienced in cities where housing supply is more inelastic. More elastic places had slightly larger
increases in building during that period. Over the past five years, a modest number of more elastic
places also experienced large price booms, but as the model suggests, these booms seem to have been
quite short. Prices are already moving back towards construction costs in those areas.

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关键词：Housing Bubbles Supply Bubble Using Bubbles Real house prices Fundamentals 英文文献 房地产