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昨日阅读2小时。 总阅读时间89小时
Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(Anurag Sharma)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 173-189)
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Depth Analysis, Dive for strength
A word of caution: The amount of information you will encounter is likely to be overwhelming. You will quickly learn that the big problem of analysis is not the lack of information but too much of it; this information is also likely to be unstructured and unorganized. It’s easy to get lost in the mass of data that companies are required to report, with reporting itself sometimes becoming convoluted and confusing. Part of the reason such complexity arises is that public companies vary in size from tens of millions in sales to hundreds of billions, and they may employ thousands of people across the world. Walmart, for instance, has over 2 million employees globally, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of others indirectly connected to the company as suppliers, vendors, and contractors. Public companies are complex entities, and the mandatory reporting is meant to ensure that they take the time to explain how they’re doing to investors and other interested parties. But the regulatory requirements can be so cumbersome that even simple facts can become befuddling and opaque to the uninitiated. Perhaps the best way to navigate through these filings, therefore, is to be clear about what you’re looking for in the vast amounts of reported information and go straight to the specific qualitative data with which to try to refute the investment thesis. Not all information in the filings is equally important; the key to being a wise investor is to have or develop the skills to quickly locate important facts that are relevant for the analysis at hand and then to make analytical judgments about the key uncertainties that characterize the investment thesis. Just as we have tried to refute the investment thesis on the basis of implied growth, yield, stability, and strength, we are now ready to dive deep inside the company to look for hidden traps and pitfalls. These potential vulnerabilities are mostly qualitative and, although we may use some quantitative markers, evaluating them requires considerable subjective judgment. As is true with most professions that rely on a body of experiential knowledge, only with experience will an investor be able to make such judgments with confidence. But the basic elements of qualitative inquiry can be learned fairly quickly. The principle of negation with which to approach the deep dive is the same as the one we have been using thus far, with one major difference. Instead of quantitatively refuting a clearly articulated investment thesis, we are looking for qualitative or narrative data that may help disconfirm the investment thesis. Because the judgments made in doing so are based on personal interpretations of qualitative data, you may not be able to clearly “hard” refute the thesis. The intent here is still to cast doubt to such an extent that disconfirmation is all but obvious. That is, our approach still is to interpret conservatively and to try to disconfirm the emerging beliefs based (by this time) on the previously executed but unsuccessful quantitative tests designed to refute the investment thesis. The skills necessary for the next stage of analysis favor journalists over mathematicians, poets over quants. The objective of the qualitative analysis is to try to cast doubt on the defining narratives of the company. We will try to do so on three broad fronts. First, if we have thus far been unable to refute the thesis on financial strength, we now want to use the quantitative data reported in the footnotes to the financial statements (as opposed to those in the tables) to disconfirm that the company has few or no obligations other than interest-bearing debt that is visible in the balance sheet. We must also evaluate such data to make a qualitative inference about the operations of the company. We want to check that not just debt but the overall financial burdens of the company are manageable and that its assets are in good order. Second, if we have thus far been unable to clearly refute the thesis using the stability tests, we now want to try to disconfirm the ability of the company to continue on its historical trajectory. As such, we try to discredit the business model of the company and question its ability to deliver consistent performance and growth in the near future. Finally, if we have thus far been unable to refute the company using the yield tests, we now want to disconfirm the proposition that the company is in an opportunity-rich environment and that it has suitable leadership in place to sustain the business and navigate through the uncertainties that inevitably lie ahead.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
- To get timely correct information for investment decision is important and we need to understand those matured stock markets information system, and compare to those that is assessable in China/HK. The quality of the information is also need to improve and when we use those information we still need to be more cautious.
- Perhaps the most common problems on the asset side of the balance sheet are errors in measurement. As such, each line item on the asset side is an aggregation of estimates that accountants make using appropriate estimation procedures; they are subject to errors. The likelihood of measurement errors increases for certain kinds of assets, such as plant and property, which are usually recorded at historical cost or, when acquired in a merger, at estimated fair value at the time of the transaction. In some cases, the estimates can be so out of line with the actual market value of the assets that the measurement errors become quite severe.
- Rules require that these and other financial assets be recorded or marked to whatever value at which they are traded at about the time the books close at end of quarter. A sudden drop in the market or trading value of the bonds reduces their asset side of the equation and translates into lower equity. In fact, many banks had subprime mortgage–backed that were subjected to market crash in 2007 and wiped out the minimal equity on the books. Banks and financial institutions often have loans and complex financial instruments on the asset side of their balance sheet. If investors do not correctly assess the quality of loans and the risks embedded in financial products, such assets pose serious risks to them. Investing in financial-sector companies is often hazardous, therefore, for most investors who do not have the expertise and the resources to make a thorough evaluation of the asset or loan portfolio. In fact, the risks embedded in the assets sometimes become so great that some managers, under pressure to deliver on expectations, may begin to contort data and use deceptions that are virtually impossible for an average investor to catch.
- For investors practicing the fine art of investing wisely, a careful scrutiny of the balance sheet and associated risks is an indispensable part of due diligence.
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