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【出版时间及名称】：2010年全球货币展望
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：58
【目录或简介】：
Dollar in 2010 – Still weak (pg 3)
The fall in the dollar since its recovery peak in March last year has taken it to levels that are low by
historical standards, and put it clearly into ‘undervalued’ territory. Although the current account deficit is
shrinking, the exploding fiscal deficit has pushed the ‘twin deficits’ to new record levels, and net savings
for the domestic economy as a whole have turned negative. With portfolio investment flows likely to
remain the major counterpart to the current account deficit, a dollar recovery would require overseas
investors to be enthusiastic buyers of US assets. Given the domestic financial imbalances, this seems
unlikely, and we expect the dollar to remain weak throughout 2010.
Best and worst in 2010 (pg 11)
Last year the USD was weak virtually across the board. We have already argued that the USD should stay
weak against most G10 currencies this year, in particular commodity-oriented currencies like the AUD and
NOK. That said, we have long felt that the USD should perform better versus the JPY and maintain this view.
Regarding EM currencies, the positive story is still very compelling as a whole. However, in terms of a
regional bias, we believe Asian currencies are more attractive than Latam and EMEA currencies.
Yen and the art of currency maintenance (pg 22)
The carry unwind during the crisis, which led to a substantially stronger JPY, was expected to level off, if
not reverse, as market conditions improved. It has not. Left to its own devices, persistent JPY strength
could continued to prove toxic to Japan’s already beleaguered economy. Japan’s officials now seem to be
openly acknowledging these downside risks caused by a stronger JPY. To us, the JPY should be weaker
and Japan’s officials finally seem to be thinking along the same lines.
Long-term forecasts (pg 28)
Given the problems of forecasting out even one year, many are understandably reluctant to venture a view
for further out. However, we are aware that a number of our customers have a need for some indication of
the likely FX market direction over a longer-term horizon for planning purposes. So again, with some
trepidation, we publish these longer-term forecasts.
Dollar Bloc (pg 31)
Canada – Old friend carries CAD into New Year – An expansion of the risk trade, including further
gains in key commodity prices, encouraged renewed CAD strength over the past month and into the new
year. We expect USD-CAD to move back towards 1.1000 as the year progresses, but to have trouble
making much sustained headway past that area.
Australia – A bonzer year ahead – Australia has started the year with a host of strong data behind it,
particularly in relation to consumption. The AUD was the best-performing major currency against the
USD in 2009, and the AUD is our favourite currency for 2010.
New Zealand – Why is the kiwi flying? – Since the beginning of the year the NZD has taken off and
rallied against the USD, and once again we find ourselves in a position to question why this has occurred.
We believe the USD should remain weak in 2010, which will provide support for the NZD. Furthermore,
we need to take a closer look at the economic data, as it may not be as bad as it appears.
Key events
Date Event
19 January BoC rate announcement
20 January BoE to publish minutes of Jan 6-7 meeting
26 January BoJ rate announcement
27 January FOMC rate announcement
27 January World economic forum annual meeting
28 January RBNZ annual meeting
2 February RBA rate announcement
4 February BoE rate announcement
4 February ECB rate announcement
10 February BoE publish inflation report
Source: HSBC
Central Bank policy rate forecasts
Last February 10 (f) May 10 (f)
USD 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25
EUR 1.00 1.00 1.00
JPY 0.10 0.10 0.10
GBP 0.50 0.50 0.50
Source: HSBC forecasts for Fed funds, Refi rate, Overnight Call rate and Base rate
Consensus forecasts for key currencies vs USD
3 months 12 months
EUR 1.494
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