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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国制药行业前景展望
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：98
【目录或简介】：
2010 Outlook for Major Pharma, Generics, and
Specialty Pharma
Pharmaceuticals
Chris Schott, CFAAC
(1-212) 622-5676
christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.com
Jessica Fye
(1-212) 622-4165
jessica.m.fye@jpmorgan.com
Yuriy A Prilutskiy
(1-212) 622-4162
yuriy.a.prilutskiy@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
See page 96 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Enclosed please find a compilation of our three 2010 outlook reports,
originally published on 5 January 2010.
Major Pharma
• Pfizer represents top pick. We see the major pharma sector entering
2010 well-positioned based on the combination of initial synergies
from consolidation, an uptick in clinical catalysts, and inexpensive
valuation. Further, we see the healthcare reform overhang that has
impacted the group for much of 2009 lifting in 2010 as current
proposals appear very manageable for the group. As for specific
names, we remain focused on the recent merged entities (Pfizer and
Merck), with both having effectively addressed their patent cliffs.
• What’s the right trough multiple for pharma? With increased
clarity on the industry's earnings profile beyond the approaching 2011-
2013 patent cliff, we believe a key debate for the sector centers around
trough multiples for the group. The US major pharma group is trading
at 9.5x 2010E EPS (over a 30% discount to the S&P500, near historical
lows) and at 9x 2014E EPS, which we see a proxy for trough earnings
for much of the group. We see upside to this trough earnings multiple
to the 10x-12x range given the more diversified, less patent exposed
business models emerging by the 2014-2015 timeframe. In addition,
we see the valuation gap between PFE/MRK (7x-8x) and BMY/LLY
(12x - 13x) on trough EPS converging over time.
• Healthcare reform: impact appears manageable. With the Senate
bill likely representing the core aspects of the ultimate healthcare
reform, we see the impact to the pharma group as manageable. Overall,
we estimate the annual EPS impact to the group in the mid-single digits
without considering potential volume gains resulting from expanded
healthcare coverage. In particular, we see the pharma sector
$2.3 billion annual fee and the 50% filling the doughnut hole
constituting roughly a 2% and 1%-2% EPS impact, respectively.
Generics
• Remains well positioned in 2010. We expect the strong fundamentals
seen for the generics industry in 2009 to persist through 2010, driving
another year of solid EPS growth and share outperformance. Despite
strong performance in 2009 (up roughly 40%), valuation for the group
remains attractive with the sector trading near historically low
multiples (13x 2010E EPS) despite several years of meaningful EPS
growth ahead. We continue to rate Teva and Mylan Overweight and
believe Watson (Neutral) will also benefit from the favorable dynamics
facing the industry.
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