【出版时间及名称】:2010年欧洲金属与矿产行业前景展望
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:64
【目录或简介】:
Though they outperformed in 2009, Vedanta and
Kazakhmys remain our favorite stocks – alongside
Xstrata in the large cap space: The fundamental
drivers for the outperformance (growth profile, preferred
commodity exposure) remain intact, and we see little
reason why that outperformance should reverse this
year. Vedanta’s confirmed growth plans over the next
24 months and further operational improvements could
lead the share price to more than double without
material changes to spot commodity prices.
Kazakhmys is one of the cheapest stocks in our
universe and is a leveraged play on copper that could
see its stub ex-ENRC re-rate in the eventuality of a sale
of its stake. Xstrata is the most straightforward play on
copper and coal, two of our preferred commodities.
Midcaps to drive outperformance: With the sector
rally driven by commodity prices, the big-5 mining and
steel stocks are moving out of attractive valuation
territory on a normalized earnings basis. As the cycle
matures, we think investors should increasingly start
focusing on the mid-cap names for outperformance as
they offer more company-specific catalysts and superior
growth profiles / optionality values. Vedanta,
Kazakhmys and First Quantum fit well in this view.
Strengthening dollar and rising inventories are risks
in the short term, but medium-term fundamentals
are unchanged: While we are cognizant of these risks,
we believe that they are temporary and would buy into
any related dips. Our preference for the miners over the
steels is driven by our view that steel prices will be
capped by significant overcapacity.
Commodity forecast revisions: Our global team has
revised its quarterly commodity forecasts, see Global
Metals Playbook – 1Q10, also published today.