20100115 中国总体经济评述

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

      【出版时间及名称】：20100115 中国总体经济评述
      【作者】：citi
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：11
      【目录或简介】：
The Beginning of Exit and Its Possible Path
 The policy atmosphere in China has changed completely from being supportive
last year to being cautious this year. Different from the emphasis on policy
continuity a month ago, the authority has decided to put brakes on credit
growth and inflation. We would see more policy surprises towards the
tightening side without any advance warning.
 The preemptive policy tightening had sent out clear messages to the market
that Chinese policy-makers are finally gauging the upside risks of the Chinese
economy. It shows that authorities are now more confident on economic
recovery amid positive PMI readings worldwide and faster-than-expected
export rebound.
 The changes in interest rates and RRR suggest that the PBOC is probably
sticking to market-based instruments for the time-being. While administrative
measures are often too rigid but effective, market-based instruments are
usually less effective. Further tightening would thus have to follow.
 In our view, the year of 2010 will start with reflation and end with inflation, but
hyper inflation is still unlikely. The export sector could stay resilient in the first
half of the year, but its momentum may not be sustained over time.
Overcapacity may remain a drag on inflation.
 China’s already high reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and historically low policy
rates could suggest that, in general, there would be more room for hikes of
policy rates going forward. For this year, we continue to expect that there would
be two policy rate hikes in the second half of the year, while the RRR could end
up above the past peak of 18%.
 However, earlier and higher than expected policy rate hikes would only be
possible if inflation surprises exceed our estimates, or if the PBOC wants to use
it as an alert device. But the PBOC’s move would have to be constrained by the
Fed’s move and the worry of hot inflows.
 The real debate would be whether policy tightening would be effective. If yes,
the worry over inflation and asset price bubbles should be eased, and if not,
prices may surge to an unsustainable level. The beginning of policy exit will
probably lead to earlier rather than later renminbi appreciation. Meanwhile,
credit tightening will likely slow domestic deman, and thus import growth.

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification and important disclosures.

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：经济评述 Overcapacity historically Appreciation Instruments 中国 经济 总体 评述

及时，价格合理的外行报告---赞一个！

thanks for sharing

价格合理！赞一个！谢了！