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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国医疗行业研究报告
【作者】：OPPENHEIMER证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：70
【目录或简介】：
A Conclusion Is Just the
Place You Got Tired of
Thinking—2010 Outlook
SUMMARY
We think most of the larger, diversified managed care plans are pretty fairly valued
at this point, as the group rose more than 50% last year, and now trades at 10.5x
our 2010 earnings projections. Continued outperformance this year will depend on
fundamentals, not reform, and while we know that pricing is better this year, there is
still economic related cost and enrollment pressures. Moreover, while reform
certainly turned out to be a lot better than the worst case fears, it is still bad for the
group and it will put pressure on margins and earnings in the future.
KEY POINTS
n Put differently, for the group to work in 2010, medical cost trends will have to
decelerate. There's a lot of historical data that indicates utilization falls after a
bad economy, but the lag time between the downturn in the economy and the
subsequent drop in cost trend has varied dramatically.
n Nearly all of the large plans will see operating earnings fall in 2010 because of
membership losses. Still, even in a normal economy, operating earnings still
probably rise only in the mid-single digits, with most earnings growth driven by
share repurchase, limiting multiple expansion.
n Keep in mind, too, that Medicare won't contribute at the same level as in past
years because of reimbursement cuts in 2010. In 2008 and 2009, managed care
gross profits increased by almost $900 million. Without Medicare Advantage,
gross profits would have fallen by nearly $2.5 billion instead.
n In valuing managed care stocks, the market has largely ignored the significant
cash held by the plans. Our revised price targets for the group have attempted
to better incorporate tangible book value in determining the appropriate multiple
for each plan.
n We have more of a small cap bias in 2010, as our favorite names are Universal
American, Triple-S, and Humana. Among the larger plans, we think WellPoint is
the best choice. We'd avoid the stocks of eHealth, Centene, and UnitedHealth
Group this year.
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