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The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 70-78)
Establish a Sound Investment Philosophy, Preservation of Capital Is the Name of the Game
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Value investing is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology. The vast majority of information about any particular investment is merely noise. Successful businesses usually are identified by a handful of meaningful variables or data points; everything else is secondary to the success or failure of the business. Warren Buffett has often remarked that he never uses a spreadsheet or calculator when making investment decisions. It is also true that Buffett has a gifted mind for numbers and remembering data. The point is not against the use of spreadsheets. Spreadsheets and calculators are tools that can add value to any analysis. The point is that elaborate spreadsheets with hundreds of formulas and ratios have so many built - in assumptions that most likely offer no additional value to the investment analysis. After the first several major pieces of data, any additional variables offer very little significant value to the analysis.
While Buffett had been keenly familiar with the operations of the Post Company through his friendship with Post publisher Katherine
Graham, he made his ultimate investment decision based on facts, not hundreds of bits of information about newspaper subscriptions, advertising revenue, and so on. He determined that you could buy approximately $1 worth of assets for 20 cents and that, over time, was a very good bet to make. Any time you can buy $1 worth of assets for substantially less, it’s generally a good bet to make. Attempting to invest in stocks or any other security without first defining and understanding the reasoning behind your investment considerations is like jumping into the ocean without first having learned to swim in a pool. Likely you will succumb to emotion and fear at the slightest sign of troubles, and your chances of long - term survival are slim. Most, if not all, of your market activities would be speculative but mistaken for an investment operation because no fundamental intellectual framework exists behind the decision - making process. This chapter lays out the foundation of value investing, which is to have a sound investment philosophy. Successful value investing does not rely on advanced intellectual capability but hinges on understanding the value investing approach. The philosophies of the value investing approach either will take hold with an investor or they will not. It’s that simple. This doesn’t mean that we must be born with a value investing orientation; it does mean that once we understand the philosophies of value investing, it immediately clicks in our brain or it doesn’t. Value investors focus on capital preservation first and capital appreciation second. The main focus of value investing is avoiding permanent losses of capital. Value investors understand that buying a stock at $20 per share and holding it until it declines to $10 is not a permanent loss of capital but a mere move in the stock price. Value investors distinguish between risk and volatility — the mere movement in stock price. They also understand that the price paid for an investment ultimately determines the future investment results. But value investors don’t worry over whether to pay $ 15 or $ 15.50 for a share of stock; instead they focus on whether $ 1 of assets can be bought for substantially less. Also, value investors seek to eliminate as much risk as possible from investing by seeking out only those investments selling at valuations that create a very comfortable margin of safety. The value investing approach is an all - or - none proposition. We don’t choose to be risk averse yet pursue the popular investments of the day without any regard to margin of safety. Without the foundation of a sound investment philosophy, an attempt at investing based on the risk - averse tenants of value investing is lost.
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Value investing, by its nature, is a highly contrarian approach. The aim of every investor is to sell an asset at a higher price than that 50 The Business of Value Investing at which it was bought. However, value investors have one aim that comes before realizing a capital gain. First and foremost, value investing focuses on avoiding losses. Although loss aversion may indeed be the goal of every market participant, it seems absent in the decisions of many market bets. By investing at undervalued prices, value investors avoid losses. Often undervalued securities are found in areas unloved by the overall market, thus requiring value investors to zig when most zag. Before making any investment, value investors consider and analyze not how much money can be made but how much money can be lost. Mohnish Pabrai sums it up succinctly when he remarks: “Heads I win big, tails I don’t lose much.” Buffett has immortalized value investors’ aversion to capital losses with his two top rules of investing:
Rule One: Don’t lose money.
Rule Two: Refer to Rule One.
The focus on capital preservation is of paramount importance to the value investor. Value investors are not interested in situations where the odds of a capital loss or gain are 50/50 or even 40/60. The goal is to find opportunities where the probability of loss is minimal and there is a probability of a very high upside. Attention to capital preservation requires that we pay attention to the value of the business and ignore stock price fluctuations, unless they provide an opportunity to buy at cheap prices or sell at fully valued prices. Focusing on the underlying business and not the stock price allows us to understand the fi ne line between preservation of capital and capital at risk of permanent loss. If we buy shares in a business for $ 50 that we determine to have an intrinsic value of $100, we shouldn’t panic if we see the stock price decline to $ 30. Assuming we have analyzed the business and determined its operations sound and its management able, the 40 percent decline in the price of the shares is meaningless in the long run relative to the value of the business. The movement in the stock price has not permanently eroded our capital. If we succumb to emotion because we can’t stomach watching the stock price decline and sell the stock, we have made a temporary decline in the stock’s price lead to a permanent loss of capital. I can’t overemphasize the tremendous importance of separating the activity of the stock price from the activity of the business. Stock prices tend to overreact in both directions. If a company reports quarterly results that are a few pennies less than the estimates analysts had in place, the price of the stock can go down by double digits in no time at all.
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