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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月澳大利亚保险行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：30
【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: We continue to prefer life
insurers to general insurers in the current environment
as retail investor sentiment towards managed funds
improves, regulatory risk in superannuation subsides,
and wealth management earnings are subsequently
re-rated. By contrast, we think excess capacity in
general insurance markets will restrict price increases in
2010, suggesting that the margin benefit of price
increases put through last year may not recur. In
accordance with these key themes, we have lifted AMP
to Overweight and downgraded QBE to Equal-weight.
What's new: We have also refreshed our forecasts and
price targets post December 31 balance date. The
major changes and their implications described in
greater detail inside this report are:
Overweight AMP: Whilst retail investor sentiment
towards managed funds is poor, we expect this to
improve throughout this year. AMP is inexpensive, and
we estimate market is pricing in either very little new
sales growth, or substantial margin contraction, both of
which we consider too conservative. Catalysts include:
greater clarity on Cooper recommendations; and a
rebound in retail inflows.
AMP+AXA deal unlikely: Whilst we estimate the deal
could still be accretive – and thus cannot entirely rule out
AMP returning for AXA – we consider this scenario a
lower likelihood due to legal risks and access to funding.
QBE is no longer obviously cheap: Whilst QBE
remains our preferred general insurance exposure, we
are cognizant of pricing pressures in 2010.
IAG & SUN insurance margins supported in FY10:
We continue to expect underlying general insurance
profitability to improve due to premium rate increases
and a seemingly benign period for larger weather events
in the December half.
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