20190225【充实计划】第991期

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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-25 05:41
该主题为【学道会】活动，点击了解详情

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有人说养成一个习惯需要21天，参与充实每一天计划21天了，希望一直保持下去。还想养成一个早起的习惯，更充分的利用时间。要早起就得相应睡早一点，睡前半小时不看手机，避免蓝光刺激眼睛，在床上睡不着就在脑海里回顾搭建的知识体系和细节，无后摄干扰，想着想着就睡着了。

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退功臣而进文吏： 邓禹、贾复知帝偃干戈，修文德，不欲功臣拥众京师，乃去甲兵，敦儒学。帝亦思念，欲完功臣爵土，不令以吏职为过，遂罢左、右将军官。耿等亦上大将军、将军印绶，皆以列侯就第，加位特进，奉朝请。——《资治通鉴卷四十三》

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间128小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 107-116)
Effective Business Valuation
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
In effective business valuation the ultimate considerations were based on a few variables: operating history, future cash flow generation, competitive threats, and the price of the business. Any sensible business valuation hinges on a few critical points. For instance, when looking at oil companies, two variables dominate the analysis: the company’s production level and the price of oil over the long run. These two variables alone represent the critical valuation metrics of oil companies. While no two businesses can ever be valued in identical fashion, when it comes to valuing any business, a large portion of the valuation will hinge on a small handful of variables. Absolutely not. Serious investment requires a keen knowledge of all the information. One of the wonderful aspects of investing is that you are constantly learning something new each day. One business’s negligible data could be another’s relevant information. Back to our oil analogy, in addition to the oil price and production level, you would also pay attention to production costs. This is helpful as you begin comparing different oil companies. When the price of oil is artificially high, it would appear that all oil companies are extremely profitable, thus making management look very competent to shareholders. Excessively high profits based on the price of oil are beyond the control of management. What management can control, however, are production costs. And when oil prices decline, oil companies with the right blend of rising production levels and stable production costs will benefit while the undisciplined companies hurt. Business valuation is not that hard if you train yourself to look at the important things over and over. When the topic of business valuation is discussed in investing circles, lots of words are thrown around, such as intrinsic value, margin of safety, free cash flow, discount rate, and so on. These are all very important concepts that are at the core of valuing a business. Before getting started in valuing any business, it’s important to have a true understanding of these terms and concepts.
Warren Buffett calls margin of safety the “the three most important words in all of investing”. The concept of a margin of safety is the supreme foundation of any business valuation. The margin of safety eliminates catastrophic investment risks. When many investors are first thinking about what gains an investment offers, the investor focused on a margin of safety first thinks about the likelihood of permanent loss an investment offers. The idea of a margin of safety stems from the reality that no investor, not even Buffett, can determine the exact intrinsic value of any business. Because a company’s intrinsic value is derived from an investor’s calculated set of assumptions, intrinsic value is merely an approximation. Sure, an investor as skilled as Buffett probably would have a better approximation of intrinsic value than most, but then again he’ s been investing a lot longer than most of us. Nonetheless, his assessment of intrinsic value is still an approximation. When you invest with a margin of safety, you’re investing in such a way that your success is not dependent on exact accuracy future forecasts. This is why the margin - of - safety concept is of paramount importance to the valuation process. It gives the investor a degree of protection from the market’s uncertainties. There is no formula that determines how wide a margin of safety you need. Obviously the wider the better, and many value investors like a 50 percent margin of safety to feel really comfortable with making an investment. And anything less than 25 percent is not significant. Remember, the point of a margin of safety is to account for the fact that you are making estimates about the future results of the business and any temporary uncertainties in the marketplace. Ultimately, the business will dictate the degree of a margin of safety. A 30 percent margin of safety in Wal-Mart is likely better than a 50 percent margin of safety in the Cheesecake Factory because you can estimate with a higher degree of certainty the future cash flows of a large, stable business that dominates its industry like Wal-Mart versus a discretionary restaurant like the Cheesecake Factory that competes with thousands of restaurants each day. The margin of safety is like an investor’s insurance policy. The wider the coverage of that policy, the more protection you have. Investing with a margin of safety does not eliminate investment loss. Investing with a margin of safety, however, does reduce the likelihood of losing significant sums of money in any particular investment. Investing with a margin of safety of your choice means that your first goal when looking to invest is to focus on return of and not return on capital. Once we’ve determined a floor price based on a fundamental valuation approach, then investing at or below that floor price ensures that your return of capital is not at a high risk of loss. The most common type of margin of safety occurs when a company’s tangible assets far exceed its market value. Graham was famous for seeking out net - net values, or securities selling for less than two - thirds of current assets, less all liabilities. That’s the ultimate margin of safety. In a situation like this, if the company were to liquidate, the odds are very good that the equity investors would get their capital back. But as more investors have entered the game, these special situations have become exceedingly more difficult to find. Many investors have a hard time grasping the concept of a margin of safety because it requires them to truly separate the value of the business from the price of the stock.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
It is of crucial important that an investor knows: How and when will the stock price reach intrinsic value.
The concept of a margin of safety will be more meaningful and understandable once you have understand intrinsic value. Keep in mind that a margin of safety is affected by the intrinsic value of the business. When the intrinsic value changes, so does your margin of safety, and you’ll need to determine whether to keep holding the investment or dispose of it. Any further attempt at investing intelligently becomes useless and potentially disastrous if you do not incorporate the concept of a margin of safety. Intrinsic values, discounted cash flow assumptions, and other fundamental tools are ineffective if you forget the concept of a margin of safety. To have a satisfactory margin of safety, you first must determine a company’s intrinsic value, because a margin of safety occurs only when a business can be acquired at a significant discount to its intrinsic value. The wider the gap, the stronger the margin of safety. Warren Buffett likes to invest with a 50 percent margin of safety. The key focus is to look for opportunities with the widest degrees of margin of safety. Intrinsic value is a term that is often cited by value investors. It’s a very important concept because all investment decisions should be based on the current market value of the business — the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current stock price - relative to the true intrinsic value of the business. The reliance on cash flows instead of profits is critical in determining intrinsic value. At the end of the day, it’s all about the cash that the business generates. Cash is real and tangible and cannot be manipulated as profits can.

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累计学习2小时，累计55.5小时

TED 为掌握而学习而不是分数
https://open.163.com/movie/2016/9/V/E/MC00SGRC1_MC00SMAVE.html?recomend=2
这个演讲给我们敲响了时代的警钟，值得每个人深思！！！

我们告别了旧模式下的工业革命，迈进了一个信息革命的时代。
工业革命时代的人力资源分布为典型的金字塔结构，最底层是劳动人民，他们知识程度可以不高，却占据着金字塔的很大一部分比重。
而这个信息时代，社会知识更新速度的变化，对个人的知识能力要求也是与日俱增，在你还是以混及格的态度来学习的时候，迟早有一天会在学习更高知识时遇到瓶颈，而这个瓶颈也许会在新时代下成为你生存的绊脚石，因为人类整体知识水平的极大进步，技术的变革，生产方式的变化，人才配置的变化，高度自动化代替劳动力时，没有充足的知识就面临生存问题。
所以看的出，在信息科技社会里，我们的学习压力越来越大了。这要求我们要为了掌握知识而学习，而不是为了分数。演讲者很严肃的说，信息时代带来了人才结构从原来的金字塔变成了“倒金字塔”型，也就是说，最底层低生产力的人参与的越来越少，在最顶端的创造型生产力参与的人越来越多，甚至说几乎所有人都有机会参与。
在这样的压力下，你还可以只为了分数而学习么？时代推动着我们不得不前进，我们要充分挖掘所有的潜能学习更多的知识，成为倒金字塔顶端的一份子，即参与创造型生产力的一份子。