|
昨天阅读2个小时,累积阅读43个小时。
In small open economy, the exchange rate pass-through has a considerable effect on inflation and output fluctuations. The exchange rate transmits the impact of any shock on the economy through its effect on import prices and relative prices. Under this circumstance, exchange rate channel plays a role as either shock absorber or amplifier in implementing the monetary policy, but how much it can absorb (or amplify) depends on the exchange rate pass-through. Therefore, the exchange rate pass-through is an important consideration with respect to the effectiveness of monetary policy.
New Open Economy Macroeconomics has developed strongly since the mid of 1990s. In this strand, studies of Clarida, Gali and Gertler (1999, 2001), Obstfeld and Rogoff (2002), Gali and Monacelli (2005), Woodford (2003), Benigno and Benigno (2003) are pioneering works that contributed the development of small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model applied to the analysis of monetary policy. In these models, they assume that exchange rate pass-through is complete, implying that LOP holds continually.
However, many empirical studies such as Rogoff (1996), Goldberg and Knetter (1997) and Campa and Goldberg (2002, 2005) showed that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete for developing and developed countries such as OECD, US, and Asian countries. Therefore, many authors such as Monacelli (2005), Adolfson (2001, 2007), Smets and Wouters (2002), Corsetti and Pesenti (2005), and Sutherland (2005) argued that introducing incomplete pass-through creates the important implications for designing of monetary policy. Overall they accepted that the exchange rate volatility and the degree of pass-through are key parameters in the design of optimal monetary policy.
Determinants of pass-through to prices: Macro vs Micro
Macro: Taylor (2000) argues that the inflation environment is an important macroeconomic determinant of pass-through. Lower inflation is associated with lower persistant of inflation and that persistence in cost changes is related to price stability. In a more stable inflationary environment, exchange rate shocks may be perceived as temporary, which encourages firms to absorb exchange rate fluctuations in their profit margins (e.g., Goldfajn and Werlang, 2000).
The exchange rate regime may be another determinant of exchange rate pass-through. In general, the pass-through is lower in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes that in fixed exchange rate regimes (Krugman, 1989). In fixed regime, when exchange rate changes, they are considered as permanent whih leads firms adjust selling prices rapidly. On the other side, in flexible regimes, exchange rate changes are considered as temporary.
Exchange rate volatility is another factor. Countries that has stable monetary policy would have their currencies chosen for transaction invoicing, i.e., local currency pricing (LCP); this leads to a lower exchange rate pass-through. The relationship between exchange rate volatility and exchange rate pass-through is expected positive (e.g., Ghosh and Rajan, 2009). However, Froot and Klemperer (1989) consider that the volatility of exchange rate is temporary, then when
firms try to maintain local market share, they will adapt their markups and high volatility is associated with a lower pass-through. In this light, we see the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exchange rate pass-through is ambiguous.
Exchange rate pass-through would be higher when the economy is booming than in periods of recession (e.g., Monteiro and Wu, 2000).
|