2010年1月美国证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：89
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
US Equity Strategy Recent Publications...........................................................................................2
Focus on Financials .................................................................................5
5 Reasons to Be Constructive on Financials.........................................8
Reason #1: Several leading indicators suggest loan growth should soon improve ...........................8
Reason #2: Potential for 2010 credit losses lower than Street expectations... ................................12
Reason #3: Gigantic capital raises behind… ..................................................................................15
Reason #4: Potential for dividends to double over next few years... ..............................................16
Reason #5: Financials trade at attractive relative valuations on P/TB and P/10-yr EPS.................19
Regulatory risk...............................................................................................................................23
Market Strategy: Focus on “Out of favor” Ideas in Financials...........24
Trade Idea: 19 Financials Stocks ..........................................................28
Closing Top Energy Stocks Trade Idea ..........................................................................................32
Update on Pro-Cyclical Stocks Trade Idea .....................................................................................33
Sector Comparative................................................................................37
Which Industries Score the Best? Based on Target Prices and Buzz-o-Meter................................38
S&P 500: Snapshot of Industry Market Capitalization...................................................................39
Price Performance – S&P 500 ........................................................................................................40
Trailing 1-Month Relative Price Performance – Sectors ................................................................41
Price Momentum – S&P 500 ..........................................................................................................42
Price Momentum – Sectors (best is low and rising)........................................................................43
Monthly Sales Revision – S&P 500................................................................................................44
Monthly Sales Revision – Sectors ..................................................................................................45
Relative Sales Momentum – S&P 500............................................................................................46
Relative Sales Growth (vs. S&P 500) – Sectors (best if tail is rising) ............................................47
Monthly Earnings Revision – S&P 500..........................................................................................48
Monthly Earnings Revision – Sectors.............................................................................................49
Relative Earnings Momentum – S&P 500......................................................................................50
Relative Earnings Momentum – Sectors (best if tail is rising)........................................................51
JULI Spreads – All Industries.........................................................................................................52
JULI Spreads (Relative to All Industries’ Averages) – Sectors (best is high and narrowing) ........53
First Call Mean Rating – S&P 500 .................................................................................................54
First Call Mean Rating (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is low and rising) ..........................55
Short Interest – S&P 500 ................................................................................................................56
Short Interest (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best is high and falling).......................................57
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows................................................................................................................58
ETF (SPDR) Fund Flows – Sectors ................................................................................................59
Price/10-Yr EPS – S&P 500 ...........................................................................................................60
Price/10-Yr EPS (Relative to S&P 500) – Sectors (best if low and rising).....................................61
Sector Analysis: Industries and Stocks ...............................................63
Energy............................................................................................................................................64
Energy (continued) .........................................................................................................................65
Materials ........................................................................................................................................66
Materials (continued) ......................................................................................................................67
Industrials ......................................................................................................................................68
Industrials (continued) ....................................................................................................................69
Technology ....................................................................................................................................70
Technology (continued) ..................................................................................................................71
Staples............................................................................................................................................72
Staples (continued) .........................................................................................................................73
HealthCare .....................................................................................................................................74
HealthCare (continued)...................................................................................................................75
Telecom .........................................................................................................................................76
Telecom (continued) .......................................................................................................................77
Utilities ..........................................................................................................................................78
Utilities (continued) ........................................................................................................................79
Discretionary..................................................................................................................................80
Discretionary (continued) ...............................................................................................................81
Financials.......................................................................................................................................83
Financials (continued).....................................................................................................................84
Buzz-o-Meter Methodology............................................................................................................85
Composite Score Methodology.......................................................................................................86

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