20190303【充实计划】第997期

充实每一天 发表于 2019-3-3 06:15
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Lyft’s IPO CouldStart a Record Year For New Tech Listings

Lyft Inc. made its IPO papers public Friday, amove that fires the starting gun on what is expected to be one of the biggestyears ever for initial public offerings. The documents set the company up tobegin trading in late March after it starts its so-called roadshow, where itpitches the business to investors, in the next several weeks. Lyft’s filingdepicts a company experiencing sharp growth, but also ballooning spending—atypical picture for big startups. It also shows just how burgeoning the businessof ride-hailing apps has become in a matter of a few years, heavily disruptingtraditional taxi hailing and car services. Last year, Lyft posted revenue of$2.16 billion, up from $1.06 billion in 2017. It nearly tripled the number ofactive riders from the end of 2016 to the end of 2018. The company’s net loss,meanwhile, expanded to $911.3 million last year from $688.3 million in 2017. Thecompany plans to trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market with the symbol LYFT, whichwould make it one of the first big public offerings in a year that may breakrecords in terms of IPO dollars raised. Fellow ride-hailing firm UberTechnologies Inc., workplace-messaging company Slack Technologies Inc., andPinterest Inc., which operates a platform for online-image searches, have alsofiled paperwork with the SEC for offerings. Lyft’s founders, John Zimmer andLogan Green—who serve as president and chief executive, respectively—togetherown roughly 7% of Lyft, the filing shows, but will have control over nearlyhalf of the vote, according to people familiar with the matter. The men willown shares that will receive 20 votes each, compared with one vote per sharefor common stockholders. The company noted they will have significant influenceover major decisions at the company, ranging from the election of directors towhether to sell one day. The Journal previously reported Lyft’s plans to givethe founders outsize control.Lyft has an unusual mix of shareholders for alarge, fast-growing technology company.

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读386小时

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充实每一天 发表于 2019-3-3 06:15
该主题为【学道会】活动，点击了解详情

【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

昨日阅读:2h<br>
累积阅读:56h<br>
连续打卡:27天<br>
早起天数:3天<br>
昨天，更新了一个认知，就是以前认为养成一个习惯需要至少坚持21天，这种观点低估了养成一个习惯需要重复练习的次数，也可能是大多数人不到21天就选择放弃了。XX从入门到精通等价于XX从人门到放弃，很精辟。有时候我们还没精通就放弃了，其实我们也不要精通，掌握一定方法去实践就行了。累积好进度条，就释放大招！

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读415小时

3月3日
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：史上最全《巴菲特致股东的信》（1977-2019年）
最新最全最好
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6940425-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
继续读：《宽客：华尔街顶级数量金融大师的另类人生》
今天读     第2章 宽客教父索普
      1961年春天的一个星期六，凌晨5点刚过，朝阳正欲将光辉洒向内华达州里诺市的一间破旧小赌场。赌场里仍是无尽的黑暗，只有霓虹灯在闪个不停。一位21点玩家坐在空荡荡的赌桌旁，投入了最后100美元筹码。爱德华·索普（Edward Thorp）焦躁不已，却无法自拔。
      “你就不能一次发两手牌吗？”他问道，迫切希望速战速决。
      “绝对不行，”她说，“这是规矩。”
      索普恼怒地直了直身子。“我玩了一夜，别的庄家都是两手两手发的。”他反唇相讥。
      “两手两手发会把其他玩家赶跑的。”她一边回应，一边洗牌。
      索普环顾了一下空荡荡的赌场：“她为了阻止我赢钱真是无所不用其极。”
      庄家迅速地将牌发出，想激他一激。终于，索普看到了他等了好久的东西。终于（也许吧），他得到了在真实赌场中证明自己的21点系统有效性的机会。索普28岁，深色头发，一张嘴一刻也闲不住。他看起来和那些老想着在内华达各家赌场赢取大把筹码的年轻人没什么两样，但实际上绝不相同。索普是个不折不扣的天才——加州大学洛杉矶分校物理学博士、麻省理工学院教授，他也是长于设计各种赌博必胜技的专家，从百家乐（baccarat）到21点都是他的研究对象。
      从夜里直到凌晨，索普出手一直不重，每次只下1~2美元筹码的注，这是他在为自己的系统寻找机会。不过，机会到现在还没等到，他的筹码倒是快要告罄了。幸运女神老是与他作对。但是，形势快要逆转了。这其实与运气没有任何关系，纯粹是数学在起作用。
      索普的系统构筑在十分复杂的数学以及大量的计算机运算之上，主要依靠计算“10”牌被发出的次数。在21点游戏中，所有的脸谱牌——K、Q、J都算做10，和“10”这张牌是一样的。索普计算得出，当“10”牌占剩余牌数的比例上升时，胜算就开始倒向他这一边。此时，庄家爆掉的可能性有所增加，因为庄家在自己手中的牌小于16点时必须“叫牌”,即给自己再发一张牌。换句话说，剩余牌中的“10”牌越多，索普击败庄家手里的牌、赢得赌局的可能性就越大。索普的“10”牌策略，即众人皆知的“加大减小”策略，是算牌技巧中的革命性突破。
      索普不能确定下一张牌究竟是什么，然而他确实知道，从统计上来说，他已经取得了优势。这其中的奥妙就是概率论中最基本的定律之一：
      大数定律。大数定律说的是，对于一个随机事件样本来说——比如掷硬币的结果，或者21点赌局中手上的牌,随着样本规模的扩大，期望均值也会增加。掷10次硬币，结果可能是7次正面，3次反面，正反七三开。但是，掷上10000次硬币，得到的结果必然接近于正反五五开。对于索普的21点策略来说，这意味着由于具有统计优势，尽管在某些牌局上他会失利，但只要玩的次数足够多，最后他总能获胜——只要他没把所有筹码输光。
      随着庄家一张一张将牌发出，疲惫的索普看到了胜利的曙光。剩余的牌里已经都是脸谱牌，收获的时候到了。他加注到4美元，赢了一把；他把赢得的筹码全部压上，又赢了一把。索普盘算着自己的胜算正在越变越大。正所谓机不可失，他继续加注。他又赢了，这次连本带利收获16美元；下一把又翻番到32美元。这时索普改变了战术，留下12美元利润，只用剩下的20美元继续赌局——他又赢了。此后，他每次都下20美元的注，连赌连赢。很快他便把输掉的100美元赢了回来，还绰绰有余。他想：见好就收吧。
      索普拿着战利品转身离开。他回头看了一眼庄家，发现她一副又惊又怒的表情，好像看到了自己无法理解的怪事。
      当然，索普证明了这没什么好奇怪的。事实胜于雄辩，他的系统是有效的。索普微笑着迈出赌场，走入内华达州和煦的阳光下。他击败了庄家。
      那天早晨发生的事情只是索普成功的开端。很快，他就要去华尔街大显身手了，在那里，他可怕的数学技巧将给他带来亿万美元的利润。索普是宽客的祖师爷，他为数学交易员开辟了一条康庄大道。几十年后，宽客成了华尔街的主宰，也几乎将它摧毁。
      事实上，宽客技术的大多数重要突破都是由这个难以捉摸的恶作剧数学家做出的，他是最早使用纯数学技术赚钱的人之一：先是在拉斯维加斯的21点赌桌前，然后是在名叫华尔街的全球大赌场中。如果没有索普，后来的金融奇才，比如格里芬、穆勒、阿斯内斯、魏因斯坦，也就不会在2006年3月的那个夜晚在圣瑞吉斯饭店聚首了。
      爱德华·索普从小就是麻烦制造者。1932年8月14日，他出生在芝加哥，父亲参加过一战，在西线担任前线军官。索普从小就显露出数学天赋，7岁时就能心算出一年有多少秒。后来，索普一家搬到加利福尼亚州洛杉矶附近的罗密托，而这时的索普也变得像所有的天才儿童一样淘气。第二次世界大战期间，他基本上都是一个人在家。母亲在道格拉斯飞机公司（Douglas Airlines）上中班，父亲在圣佩德罗（San Pedro）船厂上夜班，因此他尽可以顺着自己的想象力撒欢儿。搞破坏是他的一大爱好。他在自家车库中搭了一个实验室，鼓捣出一个小型爆炸装置，又从朋友在化工厂工作的姐姐那里搞到了硝化甘油。然后，他用这些东西造出了土制手榴弹，在帕洛斯韦迪[4]的无人山洞中引爆取乐。索普也有安静的时候，通过“火腿”电台[5]（Ham radio）和千里之外的对手下象棋。
      有一回，索普和朋友将红色染料投入加利福尼亚州最大的室内游泳池——长湾（Long Beach）的深水区中。惊慌失措的泳客纷纷逃离泳池，浑身都是红色的液体，这件事还上了当地的报纸。还有一回，他将汽车前灯连上望远镜接入汽车电源，然后，他拖着这个发明来到离家半英里远的情人坡上，等着幽会车辆排起长龙。在车内开始蒸汽氤氲的时候，他按下按钮，那玩意儿发出了像警灯一样的光束，车上的小情侣们吓得你推我搡，乱作一团，索普则在一旁大笑不止。
      上高中的时候，索普开始琢磨赌博。有一次，他最喜欢的一位老师去了一趟拉斯维加斯，回来之后向他绘声绘色地描述一位赌客如何在轮盘赌中输掉裤衩。这位老师说：“你不可能胜过这些家伙。”但是索普可不这么看。在他住的镇上有好几台非法老虎机，只要能正确地摇动手柄，就会吐出一串硬币。索普暗自思忖：轮盘赌或许也隐藏着类似的破绽，一种统计破绽。
      1955年春天，索普已是加州大学洛杉矶分校的一名二年级物理学研究生，但他仍然在思考轮盘赌的问题，他琢磨着能否捣鼓出一个持续赢得轮盘赌的数学系统。他已经想到用数学来描述轮盘赌背后所隐藏的看似是随机系统的机制——后来他将同样的想法应用到股票市场中，最终发展成了量化投资的核心理论。
      一种可能性是找到轮盘赌的缺陷。1949年，芝加哥大学的两位室友，艾伯特·希布斯（Albert Hibbs）和罗伊·沃尔福德（Roy Walford）成功找到了拉斯维加斯和里诺赌场中某些轮盘赌装置的漏洞，并利用这些漏洞赢取了数千美元。这件事登上了《生活》（Life）杂志。希布斯和沃尔福德本科时就读于加州理工学院（CIT），他们的壮举在索普的学校中广为流传——这两个学校紧挨着。
      索普相信，即使轮盘赌装置没有漏洞，也能找到击败轮盘赌的方法。事实上，没有漏洞的轮盘赌反而更容易打败，因为在这种情况下，球的运行轨迹是可预测的，就像行星必定沿着轨道运动一样。关键在于，庄家是在球动起来以后才接受下注，所以从理论上说，既然球和转子的位置和速度都是能够确定的，那么球大致会落在哪一格也就可以预测了。
      当然，单靠肉眼凡胎是无法胜任的。索普梦想制造一种可以穿在身上的电脑，这样就能对球和轮盘的运动进行现场计算，并将球最后会停在哪里作为结果输出。索普相信，他有能力造出可以对轮盘看似随机的运动进行统计预测的机器：先由观察者穿着这样的电脑，将轮盘转速的信息输入电脑；然后通过无线电将计算结果传给不远处的下注者。
      索普买了一台功能不全的轮盘来做实验，用一只百分之一秒的秒表给它的转动计时。很快，索普发现这架便宜货缺陷太多，而无法用它开发可靠的系统。这令他大失所望。当时正他忙于写毕业论文，于是便把这个工作暂时搁置了下来。但索普已经对此深深地着了迷，他并没有停止实验。
      一天晚上，索普的岳父、岳母到他家吃晚饭但索普没有出门迎接，这令二老十分吃惊，搞不懂他在做什么。最后，他们发现他在厨房研究弹珠在V型槽里的滚动，还记录下了弹珠在厨房地板上滚动多远才停下来。索普解释说，他这是在模拟轮盘中球的转动轨道。令人惊奇的是，他们并没有因此认为女儿嫁了个疯疯癫癫的家伙。
      1958年，索普一家第一次去了拉斯维加斯，此时索普刚刚获得学位，开始教学生涯。这位节约的教授听说那儿的住宿很便宜，再者他仍对穿着电脑赢得轮盘赌的主意念念不忘。拉斯维加斯的轮盘是如此平滑，使得索普坚信他能够预测最终的结果。现在，他所需要的只是质量上乘、符合赌场标准的轮盘以及合适的实验设备。同时，在那次旅行中，索普决定将自己新接触到的21点策略也试一下。
      这一策略来自《美国统计学会会刊》（Journal of the American Statistical Association）上一篇10页长的论文，作者是美国陆军数学家罗杰·鲍德温（Roger Baldwin）和他在阿伯丁试验场的三位同事——詹姆斯·麦克德莫特（James McDermott）、赫伯特·塞尔（Herbert Maisel）以及威尔伯特·坎蒂（Wilbert Cantey）。21点迷将鲍德温的团队称为“四骑士”（Four Horsemen），不过他们当中没有一个人真的在拉斯维加斯用过这一策略。四骑士花了18个月将海量数据输入桌面计算器，并一一描绘出数千手牌获胜的概率。
      作为一个科学家，索普决定趁着和妻子在拉斯维加斯度圣诞假期的机会把这个策略测试一番。虽然实验并不成功（最后的结果是输了8.5美元），但他确信这一策略可以改进。他联系了鲍德温，索要他们所使用的数据。1959年春，就在离开洛杉矶分校前往麻省理工学院之前，索普收到了他想要的数据。
      在麻省理工学院，索普找到了悄然改变现代社会进程的创造性的智力摇篮。他的职位是赫赫有名的C.L.E.摩尔导师（C.L.E.Moore Instructor），其前任是数学奇才、1994年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约翰·纳什（John Nash）。纳什的获奖成果是博弈论，这是从数学角度探讨人们如何竞争与合作的理论。纳什后来成为《美丽心灵》（A Beautiful Mind）一书和电影的原型，主要描写了他的天赋异禀及其与精神疾病的顽强搏斗。
      在坎布里奇的第一个夏天，索普埋头捣鼓四骑士给他的数据，他渐渐地理出了头绪，摸索出一套21点游戏历史性的突破方法。索普在电脑中输入大量繁杂的数据，寻找其中隐藏的可以使他获利的模式。到那年秋天，他已经发现了能够战胜庄家的21点系统的基本元素。
……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
     科学研究的精神应用在赌场上会有什么结果呢？索普给出了答案，这个答案带来了一个新的数学分支的迅速发展，同时还伴随着金融业界的革命性的变革。当然这一切都是计算机的迅速发展带给这个世界的新奇变化之一。
    索普，宽客的“祖师爷”，他不遗余力地在牌桌上践行了“大数定律”以此赢得了基本的生活费用，然后发现了广阔的用武之地“华尔街”。“他可怕的数学技巧将给他带来亿万美元的利润”，他为数学交易员开辟了一条康庄大道。
    康庄大道：释义:宽阔平坦，四通八达的大路。比喻美好的前途。出处:《尔雅·释宫》：“四达谓之衢，五达谓之康，六达谓之庄。”这是中文语意中的圣杯。当然圣怀本意更是确切。
     赢得游戏是数学计算的结果，是必然的。不确定只是在单次赌局中结果不确定，而长期（10000次）看，结果是必然了。范大师的研究是索普老先生在赌局中研究的继续。索普的确是大师：他想尽一切办法（尽其所能）来探索赌局中的至胜秘诀，他成功了。成功的重要原因之一来自于他对于规律的尊重：他的目的不是为了证明自己的正确，而是为了探索出牌局中的数学规律。所以他竭尽全力地研究感动了当时的数学大师，他找到了“悄然改变现代社会进程的创造性的智力摇篮”。与其说他是21点迷，不如说他是数学规律的迷，这一点是本质：探寻感觉到的规律（或者偶然之中的必然）。
     A股的规律是什么？
……

单词挑战第3月第15天
Entropy     n.  熵，平均信息量; 负熵;
No matter how much of a misanthrope you are there is such a thing as entropy and it will catch up with you sooner or later.

1.背单词1个 - O
2.飞鸟式36个 - O
3.Code Practices 0.5 hr - X
4.论坛收集资料30分钟*2 - O
5.Cloud Zhuang45minutes - O

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间132小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 147-153)
Discipline is everything
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The economic crisis that began in late 2007 turned into one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression. Trillions of dollars of stock market value were wiped out in little over a year’s time, and many investors suffered life - altering financial consequences. As the recession continued to affect businesses and the economy, many investors’ distaste for equities grew. What is certain is that something will come along again and capture the heart of Wall Street. It happened with tulips in the seventeenth century, 1 with Internet stocks in the late 1990s, and with the housing and credit markets in the second half of the 2000s. In the meantime, value investors should be comforted and excited by the fact that the market is providing bargains and, in some cases, investment opportunities of a lifetime for those willing to be patient. While discipline alone will not completely insulate us from the painful consequences of blind greed, it will have a significant impact on our success as a long - term investor. Most important, discipline can be the difference between surviving and getting wiped out. Time is an investor’s best friend. If we are able to ride out the worst storms with our armor relatively intact, that means we are around to participate in some of the market ’ s better buying opportunities. While Warren Buffett’s investment acumen is without question, it’s his disciplined approach to his craft that truly sets him apart from the rest. Buffett’s discipline is so unwavering that even as he became best friends with Bill Gates and often was advised by Gates to invest in Microsoft, Buffett still refused to do so except for a token 100 shares just so he could receive the annual reports. Even after years of learning about the tech industry from Bill Gates himself, Buffett remained disciplined and said no. Buffett easily could have invested $100 million without any meaningful consequence to Berkshire Hathaway. He would have been able to do so after being told about the future of industry, where it was going, who the dominant players would be — which included Microsoft — but he still he refused to invest in any significant way. While many might argue that Buffett’s discipline has cost him numerous lucrative investment opportunities — Microsoft and Wal-Mart some 20 years ago might have been the biggest — the real value is found when we invert the argument. Buffett’s discipline has enabled him to avoid potentially larger losses than any of his missed opportunities might have created. Having the discipline to walk away from an investment in spite of a favorable consensus view reveals a non-emotional, independent frame of mind, one of the most prized qualities in all of investing. And best of all, this quality doesn’t require us to have a high IQ but only a disciplined approach. Ultimately, the key to Buffett’s disciplined approach has been his strict adherence to staying within his circle of competence. The term “circle of competence” is widely known but not necessarily truly understood. It goes beyond simply understanding a business. Since befriending Bill Gates over 15 years ago, Buffett probably has read every single Microsoft annual report. I think he understands the business better than many technology investors. But Buffett doesn’t simply define his circle as understanding the operations of a business. He wants to know the entire industry, the competitive forces, the regulatory environment, and anything that might be of significance. Armed with this information, Buffett then can handicap his investment odds and determine if they meet his requirements. The technology sector doesn’t meet Warren Buffett’s requirements. All investment activity involves some risk. In exchange for that risk, the market offers investors an opportunity to earn rates in excess of the U.S. Treasury’s risk - free rate. Otherwise, stock markets would be of little value. Discipline prevents investors from assuming risks that they don’t need to take on to earn excess returns. Having the discipline to remain inside our circle of competence enables investors to do two very important things. Disciplined investors rarely ever abandon an investment at the first sign of trouble.  Disciplined investors rarely ever chase an investment that is the fad of the day. Not falling prey to these two actions may be the most valuable skill that any investor can hope to possess. When it’s all said and done, we succeed in investing by selling a security for more than we paid for it. By not jumping at the first sign of trouble or chasing rising stock prices, we stand a better chance of investment success. Regardless of the company, it takes conviction to invest against the general market consensus. By zigging when the market zags, we are sticking our neck on the line. We are setting ourselves up for criticism from the investing establishment. When Warren Buffett was shunning technology while the used car salesmen were doubling their money in months investing in Internet stocks, it was said that Buffett was stupid and out of touch with the new era of investing. If our goal is to invest in undervalued businesses, prepare to look stupid in the short run. Often some of the best investment opportunities can be found in unloved areas. The market punishes stocks without abandon if it doesn’t like what it sees ahead. Just as stock prices can overshoot when the mood is euphoric, stock prices can easily get below intrinsic value when the mood is dour. Wall Street has a vested interest in promoting the popular investments of the day, and what is popular is expensive. We won’t find battered - down stocks being talked about at cocktail parties.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Instead, the “smart” money is always talking about the crowd pleasers, without regard to any fundamentals. As 2008 came to an end, the markets were down over 40%, one of the worst annual performances on record. With scores of equities priced at valuations that will likely reward investors in future years, stocks are now perceived to be riskier than ever. Some things never change. Disciplined investors should rejoice during these times of emotional mis-behavior. As with all characteristics of investing, maintaining a disciplined approach is part art and part science. It is of paramount importance to separate a disciplined investment approach from a rigid investment approach. The greatest common fallacy that many investors fall prey to is attempting to invest at the absolute bottom. Investors feel highly intelligent when they believe they have timed the bottom of the price of a stock. Just as failing to maintain discipline can lead to avoidable losses, attempting to invest at the absolute bottom can eliminate potentially powerful investment gains. It’s futile to invest in this way. It’s great if we do catch the bottom, but remember if we do that it ’ s more luck than investment skill. Nevertheless, as foolish as it is, many investors always look to catch bottoms. As long as Wall Street looks at the market through glasses oriented to the short term, people always will attempt to time the markets perfectly.

Investors all too often make investing much more difficult than it really is by spending far too much time trying to time every single detail. When Buffett says that investing is simple but not easy, he means that many investors pay far too much attention to variables and factors that don’t affect the overall future value of the business as much as they think they do. Underpinning the aforementioned assertions, of course, is the assumption that investors have diligently researched the security and are investing with a comfortable margin of safety. If we determine that the intrinsic value of a stock is 45 a share, there is no benefit gained by waiting to invest at 20 a share versus 22 or even 24 with respect to the potential opportunity loss that may arise if the stock price doesn’t reach our target. It’s silly to forgo a potential 82%  return for the possibility of earning a 100% return at the risk of missing out on the opportunity to invest at an already attractive price. Attempting to bottom fish makes investing much more difficult - and potentially more damaging than it should be.

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