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The Future of
Economic Growth
As New Becomes Old
Robert Boyer
Senior Researcher at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Professor (Directeur d’Études) at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and Economist at the Centre d’Études Prospectives d’Économie Mathématique Appliquées à la Planification (CEPREMAP), Paris, France
THE SAINT-GOBAIN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC STUDIES SERIES
Edward Elgar
Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA
©
The Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies 2004
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Limited Glensanda House Montpellier Parade Cheltenham Glos GL50 1UA UK
Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. 136 West Street Suite 202 Northampton Massachusetts 01060 USA
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data
Boyer, Robert, 1943– [Croissance début de siècle. English] The future of economic growth : as new becomes old / Robert Boyer.
p. cm. — (Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies)Translation of: La croissance début de siècle.
1. Economic development. 2. Information technology. 3. Economic forecasting. 4.
Economic history—20th century. I. Title. II. Saint-Gobain Centre for Economic Studies (Series)
HD83.B69313 2004 338.9—dc22 2003049260
ISBN 1 84376 606 X (cased) ISBN 1 84376 607 8 (paperback)
Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall
Contents
List of Figures viii
List of Graphs and Boxes ix
List of Tables x
Preface to the English edition xi
Acknowledgements xvii
Introduction 1
A shared vision 1
Beyond the myths 2
A kaleidoscopic approach 3
1 A social construct and an analytical challenge 5
Introduction 5
The American economy in the 1990s was no longer the same as
that in the 1960s 5
Combining micro- and macroeconomics, history and geography 8
The difficulty of analysing structural changes in real time 9
Conclusion 13
2 Microeconomic instability and an uncertain organizational model 14
Introduction 14
Digitalized information and redundant networks 14
The three figures of the ‘new economy’ 17
The search for an organizational model for the ‘new economy’ 19
Conclusion 25
3 A growth regime driven by information and communications
technology? 26
Introduction 26
The new and the old economies: a conjunction of two virtuous
circles? 26
The Solow paradox has not been entirely resolved yet 28
Faster potential growth: problems with forecasting 33
The ‘new economy’ has had different effects on different sectors 36
Conclusion 42
v
vi The future of economic growth
4
Genealogy of the ‘new economy’: the institutional change at the
heart of the US trajectory 44
Introduction 44
1973–2000: the long search for successors to the Fordist growth
regime 44
An early deregulation of the product market 51
Increasingly competitive labour markets 53
ICT as a way of overcoming management problems in large
companies 55
The peace dividend 57
A new architecture for economic policy 58
Multiform financial innovations 60
Internationalization underpinned internal US dynamics 62
Should other countries adopt the institutional architecture of the
USA? 63
Conclusion 64
5 The geography of the ‘new economy’: the diversity of
institutional architectures 65
Introduction 65
ICT at the heart of the technological change process 65
Pre-conditions for virtuous growth: two configurations 68
Was the US configuration exemplary or just singular? 70
Three institutional configurations 71
Is it necessary to produce ICT in order to know how to use them? 73
Conclusion 75
6 2000–2002: reassessing the potential of ICT-driven growth 77
Introduction 77
The Internet bubble: from boom to burst 77
Traders and economists forget the lessons of history at their
own peril 86
Consecutive technological paradigms do not resemble one another 90
Conclusion 99
7 The long-term historical outlook after the Internet bubble 101
Introduction 101
Overestimating ICT’s role 101
The end

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