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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国信息产业展望
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
IT budgets are moving higher as we enter 2010.
Results from our recent survey of 150 IT executives
show signs of improvement in IT spending across the
board, for total growth of 1.7% in 2010. Following a
3.1% decline in overall IT spending in 2009, the resulting
4.8 points of total avg budget acceleration is a positive
indicator for 2010. On the segment level, the highest
growth is expected in software (+2.7%), hardware
(+2.4%) and communications (+2.0%), while services
spending is expected to be slightly down in 2010 (-0.2%)
– a considerable improvement from the 4.1% decline
seen here in 2009. In addition, IT budgets are expected
to be more evenly distributed throughout the year in
2010, which should help to smooth the recovery.
Key Segment Takeaways
Software: Software saw the biggest increase in 2010
growth expectations, up 1.2% pts vs. our last survey.
MSFT saw the biggest improvement at a vendor level,
and while PC demand will be a 2H story, the increase
reflects a potential uptick in Win 7 licensing and the
breadth of the current product cycle (Servers, Office,
etc.). Applications saw the biggest expected 2010
spend increase, which favors ORCL, TLEO, N, CRM
and SFSF.
Hardware: Hardware remains a top focus of IT
investments in 2010 but spend appears skewed towards
the back half of the year, particularly for corporate PC
and storage purchases (signaling near-term caution on
DELL, EMC, NTAP).
Communications: While respondents indicated growth
for RIM in 2010, they were measurably open to
introducing alternative platforms, such as iPhone and
Android, into their enterprises. We continue to expect
RIM to lose market share in North America, more than
offset by international growth.
IT Services: Spending plans are both supportive of and
in-line with our thesis. We expect near-term stabilization
to evolve gradually into rebounding demand for IT
services over the next few quarters, which supports our
positive thesis on ACN and CTSH.
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