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出版者：德意志银行
格式：PDF
页数：72
Macroeconomic outlook ................................................................... 3
Annual GDP growth: less exciting outlook for 2010..................................................................3
Quarterly profile of GDP growth: V+U ......................................................................................4
Sector outlook: exports and consumption to take over from FAI .............................................5
Inflation and monetary policy: the biggest uncertainty .............................................................8
Exit from expansionary policy .................................................................................................11
Structural reforms ...................................................................................................................12
Equity market strategy.................................................................... 14
Annual outlook ........................................................................................................................14
Three stages in 2010...............................................................................................................17
Sector outlook and strategy ....................................................................................................19
Themes for 2010.....................................................................................................................22
Our top Buys...........................................................................................................................23
Theme #1: Inflation beta plays ....................................................... 25
Inflation is a bigger uncertainty than growth volatility .............................................................25
High-beta winners: insurance, consumer, and agriculture ......................................................27
Obvious losers: oil refining and power....................................................................................29
Trading stocks: banks, properties, and materials ....................................................................30
Theme #2: Underpenetrated consumer sectors............................ 32
Ranking the penetration rate...................................................................................................32
Divergence of consumption growth across sectors ...............................................................34
Selected beneficiaries.............................................................................................................36
Theme #3: Export recovery in a flying-geese pattern................... 41
The first wave: container shipping, ports, exports of consumer goods ..................................41
The second wave: port machinery ..........................................................................................42
The third wave: shipbuilding ...................................................................................................43
Theme #4: 45% carbon reduction................................................... 46
Overview................................................................................................................................46
Carbon emission structure and reduction potentials...............................................................47
Major beneficiaries..................................................................................................................47
Sectors that are overplayed ....................................................................................................49
Investment implications ..........................................................................................................50
Theme #5: Consolidation ................................................................ 52
Policy background...................................................................................................................52
Steel, Cement, Glass and Coal: four sectors benefiting from consolidation ...........................53
Cement: bigger companies getting bigger..............................................................................54
Flat glass: consolidation needed to achieve government target .............................................55
Coal: small mines policy to expand to other provinces...........................................................56
How to play consolidation.......................................................................................................57
Theme #6: RMB appreciation ......................................................... 58
The RMB should resume its appreciation in H1 2010.............................................................58
The RMB will likely appreciate 50% in 10 years .....................................................................59
Impact on sectors ...................................................................................................................59
Appendix A: Deutsche Bank China universe ................................. 64
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