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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月俄罗斯热力发电行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .....................................................................3
Risks to our views........................................................................................................6
Valuation and Rating Analysis ................................................7
Electricity price forecast ............................................................................................11
Relative valuation ......................................................................................................13
Key Themes ............................................................................16
Restructuring loses steam ..........................................................................................16
Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP: a pretext for more state control rather than a trigger for
reform ........................................................................................................................17
Implications: more regulation, consolidation.............................................................18
We still see some scope for asset appreciation ..........................................................19
Long term capacity market: potential turnaround story for expensive capex projects
..................................................................................................................................20
OGK 1 ......................................................................................22
Additional share issue is a risk...................................................................................22
OGK 2 ......................................................................................24
Upgrade on the back of potential regulatory changes ................................................24
OGK 4 ......................................................................................26
Superior quality, good margin of safety.....................................................................26
OGK 5 ......................................................................................28
Good company, but high leverage undermines positives, makes it vulnerable to
potential regulatory changes ......................................................................................28
OGK 6 ......................................................................................30
Lacking positive triggers; keep N ..............................................................................30
TGK 1.......................................................................................32
Exposure to new heating network regulation.............................................................32
Mosenergo ..............................................................................34
Improvement in management – upgrade to N from UW – but lacks growth .............34
Appendix I: Operational and Financial Figures ...................36
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................43
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