2010年2月印尼水泥行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月印尼水泥行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：45
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ............................................................................................ 4
Indocement (Buy; target price: Rp20,000) ................................................................................4
Holcim Indonesia (Buy; target price: Rp2,550)..........................................................................5
Semen Gresik (Buy; target price: Rp10,700) .............................................................................5
New capacity mushrooms ................................................................ 8
Indonesia annual cement capacity reaches almost 52mn tons.................................................8
Industry utilization declined to 82% in 2009 .............................................................................9
New cement capacity: Up 12.1mn tons until 2013-14F ..........................................................10
Buoyant demand prospects............................................................ 13
Cement consumption per capita remains low ........................................................................13
Favorable interest rate environment .......................................................................................14
Normalization in government spending ..................................................................................14
Infrastructure realization..........................................................................................................15
Business strategy ............................................................................ 20
Semen Gresik.........................................................................................................................20
Indocement............................................................................................................................22
Holcim Indonesia ....................................................................................................................25
Financial discussion ........................................................................ 27
Stronger earnings and profitability outlook in 2010F...............................................................27
Compared favorably to regional peers ....................................................................................30
Strong free cash flow generation............................................................................................31
2009 sector review .......................................................................... 33
Strong cement demand in 2H09.............................................................................................34
Semen Gresik best performer in 2009 ....................................................................................35
No price war ...........................................................................................................................36
Lower export sales in 2009.....................................................................................................36
Risks.................................................................................................. 38
Banks’ limited financing availability .........................................................................................38
Indefinite delay in infrastructure development........................................................................38
Rising energy prices................................................................................................................38
Appendix A....................................................................................... 39

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关键词：行业研究报告 水泥行业 行业研究 研究报告 Availability 研究报告 德意志 印尼 行业

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