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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国汽车零部件行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：74
【目录或简介】：
Thinking Sequentially
■
Feature Analysis. Our ‘Feature Analysis’ for this month’s comprehensive
Zero to Sixty report includes a sequential comparison of North American and
European production levels so far in 1Q10 vs. actual output in 4Q09.
■
Given the huge year-to-year volume increases, as well as the substantial
cost structure changes that have occurred over the past 12 to 18 months, we
think investors may have better luck in forecasting first quarter results by
walking sequentially from 4Q09 rather than year-to-year vs. 1Q09.
■
NA Down 1%, Europe Down 6% Sequentially. On an industry-wide basis,
vehicle production in January (on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis) is
running down about 1% vs. the annualized rate in 4Q09, while output in
Europe is running down about 6%. See Exhibits 93 and 95.
■
Supplier Exposure. We have also developed a sequential version of our
Platform Monitor analysis to help gauge potential 1Q10 performance for the
auto suppliers. Using January production to develop a ‘quarterized’ run rate
for 1Q10, we note that output on key models for AXL and LEA is tracking
well ahead of the fourth quarter build rate.
■
(We don’t want to get too carried away with conclusions based on one
month of production data, but we think the sequential production and
platform framework will prove quite useful as the quarter progresses.)
■
First quarter consensus revenue for the suppliers is not up nearly as
much as the QTD output would imply – especially for LEA, where consensus
1Q10 revenues are flat vs. 4Q09 revs (see Exhibit 98).
■
Under the Hood. We also note that our latest DCF-based valuation
analysis suggests that Lear is one of the most attractive stocks in the group,
with market-implied 2011 profits about 10% below consensus.
■
2Q10 Production Expectations. Also included in this month’s report is a
first look at 2Q10 production expectations based on our proprietary inventory
analysis. Both GM and Ford should give us their initial estimates of 2Q10
output in the beginning of March, when reporting February sales. Based on
our math, we would look for Ford’s 2Q10 production to be in the range of
550 to 580K units; for GM we are looking for output in the 700K range.
■
Toyota Cross Shop Study. Many investors have asked about the potential
market share implications of Toyota’s recall mess. In our view, the primary
beneficiaries of Toyota’s troubles will be Honda, Hyundai, and Nissan. Ford
and GM should also benefit, but to a lesser degree. Results from a CNW
cross-shop study are consistent with our view (Exhibits 6 and 7).
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