BARCAP-NXP SEMICONDUCTORS-4q09 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK-100304

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      【出版时间及名称】：BARCAP-NXP SEMICONDUCTORS-4q09 UPDATE AND OUTLOOK-100304
      【作者】：barclays
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：21
      【目录或简介】：
Investment Recommendation: Upgrading Senior Notes to Overweight
from Market Weight, Maintain Overweight on Second-Priority Notes
On higher-than-expected revenues and gross margin, NXP’s 4Q09 adjusted EBITDA of
$191mn was above our estimate and up $37mn sequentially. Free cash flow of negative
$18mn was significantly above our negative $173mn estimate, and total liquidity was
$1,161mn at quarter-end. Reflecting continued demand improvement, the company
provided stronger-than-seasonal 1Q10 revenue guidance (revenues flat to up slightly
sequentially) and increased the scope of its redesign program. Management now expects
at least $650mn of annual savings by 2011, up from its previous $550mn savings target
by year-end 2011.
To reflect a stronger revenue outlook and additional benefits from cost savings and the
deconsolidation of the EBITDA negative TV/set top box business, we estimate 2010
EBITDA of $915mn; $111mn of free cash flow after $250mn of cash restructuring costs;
secured, total, and net leverage of 4.5x, 5.8x, and 4.6x, respectively; and $1.2bn of
liquidity. We note, however, that after strong demand trends through early-mid 2010, we
assume below-seasonal trends in 2H10, reflecting some potential build in supply chain
inventories (following a period of constrained capacity) and moderate economic growth
(including some softening of European automotive production). Given NXP’s improved
performance and cash flow outlook, the company may continue to repurchase bonds
opportunistically in the open market.
To reflect the company’s improved outlook, expected

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