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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月全球宏观经济研究及投资策略
【作者】：花旗银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：84
【目录或简介】：
Global Economic Outlook and Strategy
February 2010
Despite market nervousness over sovereign credit worries and tightening global
liquidity, we believe that global recovery is becoming more firmly entrenched.
We continue to make more upgrades than downgrades to our 2010 growth
forecasts across major economies, although as before the pattern remains
uneven – with Asia leading and Europe lagging. This month, we have
significantly raised our 2010 GDP growth forecasts for Canada, Japan,
Argentina, Poland and, especially, Russia. In addition, our 2010 inflation
forecasts are creeping up in several emerging markets.
China has taken a strong start to removing stimulus in 2010, although we do
not expect the PBOC to hike rates until Q3. For the US, recovery is steadying
labour markets and boosting private income, but lingering credit strains hint
that the Fed will wait until much later this year to begin raising overnight rates.
For the euro area, we have revised down our 2010 GDP forecast for a third
consecutive time. The ECB is unlikely to hike its main policy rate this year.
Chief Economist Essay (see page 6): While near-term global growth prospects
are improving, the medium-term outlook will depend on decisions on three
vitally important issues: US fiscal policy, FX policies of China and other highgrowth
emerging markets, and the EU/euro area sovereign debt crisis.
We do not expect worries over sovereign credit among some EU countries to
derail risk assets in general. Nevertheless, after strong rallies, our strategists
believe investors need to be selective. Citi rate strategists argue that investors
should take market rallies as opportunities to set short positions in major bond
markets, most notably in US treasuries. Citi equity strategists continue to look
for a roughly 30% rebound in EPS in 2010, allowing global equities to grind
higher. Citi credit strategists are rather dubious about the risk/reward in
positioning for any rally in Europe, but more positive on US credit.
Forecast Highlights 3
Overview — Still Positive On Global Growth 4
Chief Economist Essay 6
Economic Forecast Overview 22
Change in Economic Forecast from the Previous Month 23
Short Rate Forecasts 24
10-Year Yield Forecasts 24
10-Year Yield Spread Forecasts 24
Foreign Exchange Forecasts 25
Long-Term Forecasts 26-27
Country Commentary 28
United States 28
Japan 29
Euro Area 30-32
UK 33
Switzerland 34
Nordics 34
Canada 35
Australia and New Zealand 36
China 37
Brazil 38
Mexico 38
Argentina 39
Venezuela 39
Russia 40
Turkey 40
Poland 41
Czech Republic 42
Romania 42
Nigeria 43
South Africa 43
India 44
Korea 44
Hong Kong 45
Singapore 45
Rates Strategy 48
Credit Outlook 50
Global Equity Strategy 52
Securitised Products Strategy 54
Citi Commodity Price Forecasts 58
Citi Foreign Exchange Forecasts 61
Appendix A-1 82
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