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【出版时间及名称】：BARCLAYS-EURO WEEKLY-100312
【作者】：barclays
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
Economics
Euro Area: Filtering out the noise 3
The weakness in Germany’s January trade data poses a downside risk to Q1 GDP
growth. By contrast, the January IP figures are stronger than the headlines appear.
Infocus: SNB leaves interest rates unchanged 5
Against the backdrop of the SNB’s latest forecasts and assessment of the economic
situation, we expect the bank to keep rates unchanged throughout 2010.
UK: Let’s talk about the weather 7
We believe January’s weak export and manufacturing data are erratic and contain little
news about Q1 GDP.
Rates Strategy
Euro: The ECB collateral framework 15
There has been a lot of focus on the collateral framework of the ECB recently, not only
in light of the Greek situation, but also as regards the ECB exit strategy. We look at the
eligible and posted collateral at the ECB, along with potential rule changes.
UK: Have the gilt vigilantes done enough? 19
Demands for more aggressive fiscal tightening are likely to be disappointed and leave
the market vulnerable to bear steepening. With intermediate forward gilt rates around
6%, the case for supporting the market is becoming more compelling.
Covered Bonds: The time lag between swap spread moves of government and
SSA debt 22
Following reassuring signs in the markets for peripheral European government debt,
swap spreads of government bonds and agency bonds have markedly recovered.
Sovereign Spreads: Getting Longer 25
2010 has experienced heavier long-end issuance than seen in 2009, peripheral issuers
have in particular upped longer maturity supply and we expect this trend to continue.
Euro Inflation-Linked: Poor value in short-dated euro real yields 28
We see short-dated euro real yields as unsustainably rich. Current valuations are
unlikely to attract demand and, in our view, offer poor value within a portfolio.
Volatility: Trade ideas in EUR and GBP options 30
In GBP, we recommend buying £20y10y ATM payers. In EUR, we recommend buying
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