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【出版时间及名称】：BARCLAYS-GLOBAL ECONOMICS WEEKLY-CHIMERICA REBALANCES-100312
【作者】：barclays
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：39
【目录或简介】：
Erratum: Page 3: The Global Synthesis has been updated to say that "the US trade
deficit, released on Thursday, contracted significantly in January", and not in December,
as previously stated. Page 35: Our forecast for the BoE MPC minutes vote on
Wednesday is 9-0, and not 8-1, as previously stated.
􀂄 Global trade flows have already recovered 50% of their post-Lehman collapse,
and we expect this process to continue.
􀂄 Beyond the surge in flows, a process of global trade rebalancing is also self-evident,
consistent with data released from China and the US during the past week.
􀂄 With Chinese authorities signaling that the current peg is under review, we
expect China to move to a gradual pace of currency appreciation starting as early
as April.
Developed Economies
US: Deleveraging is overrated 10
We believe asset prices and income growth are more important for consumer spending
than household deleveraging, and these factors point to continued solid growth.
Euro area: Filtering out the noise 14
The weakness in Germany’s January trade data poses a downside risk to Q1 GDP
growth. By contrast, the January IP figures are stronger than the headlines appear.
UK: Let’s talk about the weather 19
We believe January’s weak export and manufacturing data are erratic and contain little
news about Q1 GDP.
Japan: Clouds gradually lifting 22
Q4 09 GDP was lowered this week, but not for the expected reasons. Capex held firm
and inventories were revised down, both of which bode well for future growth.
Emerging Markets
As the EM quarterly will be published early next week, the EM coverage this week is
limited.
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