发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月16日
【作者】：Merrill Lynch
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：87
【目录或简介】：
Seven “Big Miners”, three big issues
We compare seven “Big” global miners on valuation, commodity exposure, growth
and returns. We also analyze three “Big Issues”: Growth, Optionality and Cash
Generation. Key takeaway: Vale has the best growth. Our equity views in
brief:
􀂄
BHP Billiton (Neutral): The “core” holding but less levered, valuation “full”.
􀂄
Rio Tinto (Buy): Preferred European exposure due to iron ore gearing.
􀂄
Xstrata (Buy): Leverage to copper & coal. Potential Glencore IPO overhang?
􀂄
Anglo (Buy): Operational turnaround underway, iron ore, copper growth.
XTA sees Anglo as natural M&A fit but Anglo prefers independence.
􀂄
Vale (Buy): Purest big cap exposure to iron ore. Nickel division challenged.
􀂄
Freeport (Buy): The last really big “pure play”. Consolidation target?
􀂄
Teck Resources (Buy): Copper, coking coal leverage. 15 bagger off lows!
Big issue #1: Organic Growth – who has it?
We analyze the growth profiles of the big miners based on revenue growth
assuming flat commodity prices through 2015. Vale screens the best by far,
followed by Xstrata & Anglo (but who have considerable execution risk). Teck &
Freeport
screen the worst as their copper volumes drop off in out years.
Big issue #2: Optionality & “Hidden Value”
Our “case studies” of a selection of “world class” assets look at value that we may
underestimate. We look for hidden value in Olympic Dam (BHP), Collahuasi
(AAL, XTA), Pilbara iron ore (BHP, RIO), Vale’s iron ore system, Escondida (BHP,
RIO), Queensland Coking Coal (BHP) and Cerrejon (BHP, XTA, AAL) and Teck’s
coking coal and oil sands projects. BHP’s “100 year” assets (Olympic Dam,
Coking Coal) are incredible – but how do you value something that could
fundamentally alter the market?
Big issue #3: Cash generation: >500 bn cash through 2015
We estimate cash generation of the group over the next 5 years. On our base
case commodity prices, we estimate these miners generate >$500 bn operational
cashflow (80% of market cap). We think that this gets deployed about 40% to
capex, 20% to dividends leaving $200bn surplus. How will companies spend
it? Vale sticks out vs. peers i.e. huge cash flow, huge capex plans.
Contents
Intro: 7 “Big Miners”, 3 big issues 3
1. Big issues – key takeaways 4
Big issue #1: Organic Growth 7
Big issue #2: Optionality 11
Big issue #3: Cash Flow 25
2. Company summaries 29
3. Growth potential 59
4. Commodity exposure 71
5. Regional exposure 85
6. Company details 87
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