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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：58
【目录或简介】：
• We remain cautious. Conviction levels across the market are low as investors try to ascertain the likely strength of the economic recovery, the scope
for monetary tightening/liquidity withdrawal and fiscal concerns. While equity valuations are not excessive, they do not give us enough comfort, given the
high level of uncertainty in the macro space. 2Q is likely to see economic leading indicators slow, in our opinion, while the authorities continue to take
steps to withdraw monetary stimulus and prepare the ground for tighter fiscal policy in 2011. Against this backdrop, we remain cautious on stocks and wait
for a better entry point.
•UK economy – mixed signals. Most of our key macro indicators for the UK show that the economy is rebounding; however, the likely strength of the
recovery is still in question, given concerns over consumers’ appetites for debt, a fragile housing market and falling employment levels. The forthcoming
election also adds an extra layer of uncertainty with latest polls pointing to an inconclusive outcome and likely further pressure on sterling and gilts. Our
UK economists forecast GDP growth of 0.9% in 2010 and 1.4% in 2011 and expect the first BOE rate hike in 4Q09.
•Investment strategy. In addition to weaker growth fears, we believe effective interest rates are going to rise over the coming months and hence we
prefer to invest in defensive stocks with good growth characteristics (e.g. our reliable growth strategy). We are cautious on stocks with weak balance
sheets and/or those that need to refinance or roll over borrowings. We prefer defensives over financials and industrial cyclicals/commodities over
consumer cyclicals. Our key overweight sectors (which also benefit from GBP weakness) are Consumer Staples, Pharmaceuticals, Oil and Industrials.
We recommend investors reduce weightings in all Financial sectors and Consumer cyclicals.
•Current Investment Themes:
(1) Reliable growth – A volatile and uncertain macro environment should favour stocks that have a good track record of producing consistent profit
growth. Overweight-rated stocks in our reliable growth screen are: Sage, Cobham, Reckitt Benckiser, Imperial Tobacco, Next, BAe Systems, Burberry,
AstraZeneca, Diageo, ABF, TUI Travel, Centrica, Anglo American, Xstrata.
(2) Take profits in consumer cyclicals – 2010 could be a tougher year for household disposable income than 2009 with non-discretionary inflation set to
rise sharply. This is traditionally a good sell signal for the Retail sector, which put in its best-ever relative performance last year.
(3) Prefer Overseas Exposure – Weaker GBP and relatively weaker domestic growth suggest investors should look for companies that generate a large
proportion of their sales/profits outside of the UK.
(4) The tightening cycle – The start of a new tightening cycle is likely to be bad for financials and consumer cyclicals, while defensives should perform
relatively well. Commodity and Consumer Staples’ stocks should outperform if inflation fears rise.
(5) The importance of dividends – With interest rates set to remain low for some time, stocks with a solid dividend profile should perform well. Stocks
with a high, secure and growing yield include Aviva, BT, Henderson, Amlin, Legal & General, BAT, BAe, Imperial Tobacco.
Regular Stock screens:
(1) Private Equity (P44) – New entrants in our private equity screen this month are: Debenhams, Berkeley Gp, United Utilities and Enterprise Inns.
(2) 3 U’s and 3 O’s (P45-48) – New entrants in our 3 Us screen are: Admiral, Close Bros, Hiscox, TUI Travel, WH Smith. New entrants in our 3 Os
screen are: Cookson, Euromoney, Lloyds Bank, Xstrata.
(3) Director Deals (P49) – The largest director buying in the last month came in: BP, Connaught, Unilever & Tate & Lyle.
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