2010年3月亚洲宏观策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月亚洲宏观策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：25
        【目录或简介】：
Local Rates: Pay 5y THB swap and pay 5y CNY repo-swap for
rising inflation. Buy 10y KTB in Korea for a supply/demand imbalance
• FX: Emphasize core long CNY as Beijing gets closer to reval and
long KRW as risk sentiment and policy turns constructive. Enter
long MYR, short SGD on relative value and policy divergence
• Sovereign credit: Long protection on Thailand 5yr CDS and take
profit on short Vietnam CDS position
• The economy
Thursday’s February CPI data release from China will be in focus,
following last week’s China NPC policy outlook that balanced the need
to manage inflation expectations, amid upside risks in JPM’s view.
• Monetary policy
With EM Asia's first rate hike under our belt (Malaysia), this week will
see BoT and BoK meet. Neither will hike rates, but both will talk hawkish.
The next to raise policy rates will be China and India, both in April.
• Risk environment
We have been positioned for a tentative risk rebound, and this has
proven the right choice. We stick with this. In other words, we are
long Asian FX, paid in rates, and become constructive on credit.
• Asia currencies
Our long core positions in CNY, KRW and IDR come under the spotlight
this week as critical China inflation, a BoK meeting and political intrigue
in Jakarta unfold. Separately, we recommend fresh long MYR, short
SGD positions on the basis of relative MYR undervaluation.
• Asia local rates
We keep the portfolio positioned for higher rates and a flatter curve. We
initiate a pay 5-yr THB swaps and add to our paid 5-yr CNY swap. In
Korea, we go long outright 10yr KTB (demand/supply imbalance), and
to stick with our range trade (6m1y 1x2 receiver spread) at the front end.
• Asia sovereign credit
We still like Indonesia ‘20s and we recommend staying long Korea short
China. We took profit on our short Vietnam trade. Our new recommendation
is to sell protection on Thailand 5-year CDS.
• Feature articles
China Rates: Add to paid 5y IRS for CPI and possible 3y PBOC bill
re-issuance (Simon Song & Bert Gochet)
Thailand: market pricing in too much political risk (again) (Matt
Hildebrandt)
Asia FX: SGD/MYR relative value favors long MYR v. SGD (Claudio
Piron & Yen Ping Ho)
Asia Marco Strategy Overview 2
Data, Auctions, policy meetings calendar 5
Feature: China Rates: Add to paid 5y IRS for CPI and
possible 3y PBOC bill re-issuance 6
Feature: Thailand: Market pricing in too much
political risk (again) 10
Feature: Asia FX: SGD/MYR relative value favors
long MYR v. SGD 11
Asia FX Trade Recommendations 14
Asia Rates Trade Recommendations 17
Asia  Sovereign  Credit  Recommendations 21
Top Trades  overview 22
Regional  Market  Forecasts 23

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关键词：策略报告 宏观策略 Constructive Expectations environment 亚洲

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