2010年3月澳大利亚证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：75
        【目录或简介】：
Key Highlights – reporting season gives us no reason to change our outlook

Reporting Season Anaemic: This was illustrated by a median surprise of +0.7%, and a median 0.2% upgrade to our 2010 numbers. The headline revision number was strong (+0.7% on our numbers, and a 3.4% upgrade to consensus over the past month), driven by many strong results at the larger end of the market – such as good outcomes from CBA, WBC, WOW, WES. This is a key positive, in our view. However, results overall were very mixed.

Revisions Strong on Surface, but Breadth Weak: Reflecting our views on the reporting season, recent consensus revisions were strong at the headline level (+3.4%), but breadth was very lacklustre - the latest I/B/E/S consensus revision breadth was just +2 stocks (that is only 2 more stocks had upgrades than downgrades on balance). Miners continue to lead the revision charge by quite some way. This suggests to us that the earnings recovery is still shaky.

Bellwethers Strong, but Guidance Cautious: Our group of bellwethers managed a good surprise of +3.3%, but with a mixed bag of outlook views and earnings revisions. Of note was a decidedly cautious tone in outlook comments amongst these companies.

Market Outlook Unchanged: Earnings are in a bottoming phase right now, and the results of reporting season give us no reason to change our earnings outlook. Our below consensus index target of 5,207 (+13%) for the year end remains intact.

Stocks to Buy from Reporting Season: There were plenty of positive outcomes. We continue to track positive stocks from reporting season – our research shows a good result can mean long-term outperformance of a stock - you don’t have to time the trade before the announcement to benefit. Our basket of winners from last reporting season has returned 19%, versus the market of 2.6% since September 2009. The 10 best scoring stocks - on surprise, revision, and reaction - were ANN, CTX, RMD, WBC, WES, CSL, IOF, AIO, AEO.

Model Portfolio Changes: Adding ANZ, IOF, CFX, AWC, SHL, WES. Removing WDC, IPL, CSR, PRY, RHC. More details on the next page.

We acknowledge the contribution of Mohit Shrivastav to this report.

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