JPM-MONTHLY TIRE REVIEW-MAR 2010-VOLUMES IMPROVED FURTHER-100311

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      【出版时间及名称】：JPM-MONTHLY TIRE REVIEW-MAR 2010-VOLUMES IMPROVED FURTHER-100311
      【作者】：jpmorgan
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：22
      【目录或简介】：
Latest readings of tire industry conditions indicate continued sequential cyclical
rebound in volumes in NA/Europe and creeping raw material prices. Preliminary
February US tire shipments indicate that RMA consumer replacement tire shipments
increased 13% y/y (vs. +3% in Jan and +9% in Dec), while total industry volumes
(including non-RMA members) grew slightly more (+17% y/y). Similarly, Michelin
data suggest that consumer replacement demand in Europe increased +7% y/y in
January (vs. +17% in Dec and +9% in Nov). Raw material prices continue to be a nag,
with JPM tire raw material index rising +4% m/m (+71% y/y) after a pause (-1% m/m
in January). We believe industry structure is sufficiently healthy for tire-makers to be
able to offset sequential raw material rises in most cases, but the extreme near-term
spikes could be more challenging. We note that several major tire makers
(Continental, Michelin, Bridgestone etc.) have +4-7% price hike in NA and/or Europe
for the March/April time frame. We expect GT, CTB and others to announce further
price hikes in the spring /early summer timeframe. We remain constructive on tire
stocks given sequential rebound in replacement tire volumes. We prefer Overweight
rated CTB over Overweight rated GT, partly because CTB has strong ability to
overshoot normalized earnings in 2010 due to company specific factors (ITC tariffs
which should benefit CTB pricing/ margin, Albany plant closure which should benefit
utilization rates). GT stock, however, remains attractive to us as well, although lacks
near-term catalyst; we believe its risk/reward is interesting for patient investors, given
GT equity’s inherently high beta in the context of a macro improvement (exposure to
commercial and OE end markets, large pension plans with significant equity exposure,
and financial leverage).
• U.S. Tire Prices (page 3). Tire PPI was flat sequentially in January. We anticipate
tire pricing to increase in 2010

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