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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国付费电视行业研究报告
【作者】：Collins Steward证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
Pay TV 2010- Will they Benefit Next?
n Pay TV: Beneficiaries of Potential Economic Recovery.
For the PayTV operators, trends in two metrics: Foreclosures and
Housing Starts are noteworthy because they have a direct impact on RGU
growth. While we continue to see foreclosures rise Y/Y, their sequential
decline would appear to indicate that incremental foreclosures may have
peaked in mid-2009. Similarly, the Housing Starts appear to be up Y/Y in
1Q10 for the first time in more than 2 years. Combined, these trends
might suggest greater gross adds and lower churn in 2010 (than we and
the market expect) in Triple Play services. That said, we are still assuming
a decline in RGU net adds in most services across most providers. Our
top picks remain DTV and CVC. TWC and DISH are Buy rated.
n Cablevision: Leading the Pack
With innovative services such as ‘PC to TV Relay’ and a Network DVR
being launched this year, CVC continues to lead the industry with
innovation. Having spun off MSG, CVC also leads the MSOs in EBITDA
growth and FCF yield.
n Comcast: Regulation-bound
Although CMCSA trades at the lowest 2010 EBITDA multiple of the major
PayTV providers, we expect this to remain the case while the company’s
NBCU merger is assessed in Washington. Ironically, we expect that
CMCSA was the most impacted by recent programmer/operator battles as
it will likely translate to additional regulatory scrutiny and, therefore, deal
concessions.
n TWC: Balanced Fundamental Growth Plus Higher Dividends
Although TWC has already benefitted from CMCSA investor migration, we
expect there’s additional upside when coupling the company’s moderate
but balanced customer and EBITDA growth with its ability to meaningfully
raise its dividend.
n DIRECTV: Mid-teen EBITDA Growth and Massive Equity Shrink
With its mid-teen 2010 EBITDA growth and expectation for massive equity
shrink, DTV remains one of our top long term PayTV picks. Although
some on the Street may be concerned about DTV’s lowered subscriber
growth, we’re not. The company’s continued strategic move to higher
credit customers and therefore lower subscriber growth will translate to
lower churn and higher EBITDA and FCF.
n DISH: Classic Turnaround
Over the past two quarters, DISH has added nearly 500k subs, more than
any other provider, while not materially increasing churn. We expect this
turn-around to continue. Additionally, we expect the cost of a Tivo license
fee within the $2.50-$3.50 (per sub) range is now in the stock. That
damage is done.
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