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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球服装零售行业研究报告
【作者】：荷兰国际集团
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：49
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Summary 3
Investment case 4
Key industry themes..................................................................................................4
H&M versus Inditex: top-line growth prospects .........................................................5
Valuation: paying for growth......................................................................................7
H&M versus Inditex: gross margin and FX dynamic ...............................................10
Companies 15
H&M ........................................................................................................................16
Inditex......................................................................................................................30
Disclosures Appendix 48
Initiating H&M coverage with a BUY recommendation
We initiate coverage of H&M with a BUY recommendation and a DCF-based target
price of SKr515 that implies upside from the current share price of 15.6%. Our SKr515
target price equates to an 8% PER premium relative to Inditex based on calendarised
2013F earnings. We estimate that H&M has a higher five-year CAGR for both
revenues and earnings compared with Inditex. We expect H&M to keep growing for
several more decades still. The company is currently represented in less than half the
number of countries in which Inditex is represented, while we expect 10-15% new
store growth per annum to be sustainable in the medium term.
Lack of consistent top-line LFL growth was an issue for the company in FY09 but we
believe the FY10F revenue outlook is starting to look more encouraging, helped by
weak comparatives in some of H&M’s key markets, such as the US and France. We
expect H&M to reassure when it reports February revenues and 1QFY10 earnings on
8 April 2010. H&M’s impressive 4QFY09 gross margin progression was slightly
flattered by some complicated FX hedging arrangements although there has been
some underlying progress in extracting further supplier efficiencies and better buying.
Inditex: too much exposure to Spain
We initiate coverage of Inditex with a HOLD recommendation and
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