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利用人工智能的前景
Perspectives on AI adoption from around the world
从世界各地看人工智能的采用
How is AI adoption playing out around the world, and how do adopters and governments view the technologies’ potential—and risks? Recent research from Deloitte Global member firms shows executives facing a wide range of challenges.
人工智能在世界各地的应用情况如何，应用者和ZF如何看待这些技术的潜力和风险？德勤全球成员公司最近的研究显示，高管们面临着广泛的挑战。
Introduction
介绍
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE has evolved from an esoteric research topic—with its origins six decades ago in corporate and academic computer science labs—into a collection of powerful technologies with mainstream business promise and applicability. Deloitte’s global AI study finds that, in organizations adopting AI, more than eight in 10 leaders see AI as “very” or “critically” important to their business success in the next two years.1 AI adoption and spending are surging globally. According to one report, 37 percent of organizations have now deployed AI—a 270 percent increase from four years ago.2 Analysts project global spending on AI to top US$35 billion in 2019 and more than double to US$79.2 billion by 2022.
人工智能已经从60年前起源于企业和学术计算机科学实验室的一个深奥的研究课题发展成为一个具有主流商业前景和适用性的强大技术集合。德勤（Deloitte）的全球人工智能研究发现，在采用人工智能的组织中，超过八成的领导者认为人工智能对未来两年的业务成功“非常”或“至关重要”。1人工智能的采用和支出正在全球范围内激增。根据一份报告，37%的组织现在已经部署了人工智能，比四年前增加了270%。2位分析师预计，2019年全球人工智能支出将超过350亿美元，到2022年将增加一倍多，达到792亿美元。
What is driving this tremendous upswing? Many foresee AI helping to spur enormous productivity gains over the next decade, making it essential to the competitiveness of national economies.4 Some researchers even believe that AI is poised to become a “general-purpose technology”—one of only a couple dozen inventions in human history (including steam engines and the internet) to have pervasive effects across industries, spark complementary innovations, affect economies, and actually change societies.5 Technology giants with global reach are declaring “AI-first” ambitions and using AI innovations to reduce costs, increase productivity, and fuel new products and services. At the same time, nimble, AI-focused startups pose a competitive threat to traditional businesses.
是什么推动了这个巨大的上升？许多人预见到人工智能有助于在未来十年内刺激巨大的生产力增长，使之成为国家经济竞争力的关键。4一些研究人员甚至认为人工智能将成为一种“通用技术”——人类历史上仅有的几十项发明之一（包括蒸汽机和互联网）跨行业的普遍影响，引发互补性创新，影响经济，并实际改变社会。5个具有全球影响力的技术巨头正在宣布“人工智能优先”的雄心，并利用人工智能创新来降低成本、提高生产力，并为新产品和服务提供燃料。与此同时，灵活、专注于人工智能的初创企业对传统企业构成了竞争威胁。
Companies of all kinds across the globe increasingly regard the development of strong AI capabilities as essential to remaining competitive. National governments, too, are focusing on the economic potential of AI for their countries. Of course, AI technology adoption won’t necessarily materialize effortlessly into economic gains all around, and to fully capitalize on AI’s promise, leaders should strive to get execution and strategy right. They should first aim to understand the best use cases for their industry and particular circumstances, and then build from there. Leaders should also be aware of possible risks associated with AI and develop plans to manage them.
全球范围内的各类公司越来越多地将开发强大的人工智能能力视为保持竞争力的关键。各国ZF也在关注人工智能对本国的经济潜力。当然，人工智能技术的采用不一定会毫不费力地转化为经济效益，为了充分利用人工智能的承诺，领导者应该努力使执行和战略正确。他们应该首先了解行业和特定环境的最佳用例，然后从中构建。领导者也应该意识到人工智能可能带来的风险，并制定计划来管理这些风险。
Recent research from Deloitte global member firms around the world—which we describe and excerpt in this report—looks at AI from a variety of perspectives. How is AI adoption playing out around the world, and how are adopters and governments viewing the potential—and risks—of AI technologies? What kinds of business benefits are adopters realizing? Are they using AI to keep up with the competition or to pull ahead? Are they using it to evolve their businesses—improving processes and products—or to transform their companies (and even industries) with innovative solutions? What are the challenges and risks that organizations confront as they create business value with AI?
我们在本报告中描述和摘录的德勤全球成员公司的最新研究从多种角度看待人工智能。人工智能在世界各地的应用情况如何，应用者和ZF如何看待人工智能技术的潜力和风险？采用者意识到了什么样的商业利益？他们使用人工智能是为了跟上竞争还是为了领先？他们是利用它来发展他们的业务，改进流程和产品，还是用创新的解决方案来改造他们的公司（甚至行业）？当组织使用人工智能创造业务价值时，它们面临的挑战和风险是什么？
Global perspectives
全球视野
Given AI’s tremendous potential to drive economic expansion and alter the nature of work, it’s unsurprising that many nations are engaging in a new kind of space race to become AI leaders and reap the spoils. Twenty-six countries (and counting) have published national AI strategies or frameworks to foster growth, and many are backing up their ambitions by making investments, setting up programs, sponsoring research, and establishing partnerships.6 Many governments are also assessing how they can ensure privacy, safety, transparency, accountability, and control of AI-enabled systems without stifling innovation and the potential economic benefits.
考虑到人工智能在推动经济扩张和改变工作性质方面的巨大潜力，许多国家正在进行一种新的太空竞赛，以成为人工智能的领导者并收获战利品，这并不奇怪。26个国家（包括在内）已经公布了促进增长的国家人工智能战略或框架，许多国家正在通过投资、设立项目、赞助研究和建立伙伴关系来支持自己的雄心壮志。6许多国家的ZF也在评估如何确保隐私、安全、透明、问责，以及在不抑制创新和潜在经济效益的情况下控制人工智能系统。
A recent Deloitte report, Future in the balance? How countries are pursuing an AI advantage, provides a global view of AI early adopters, based on surveying 1,900 executive respondents from seven countries. These adopters are ramping up spending on AI technologies and reaping positive returns. They profess a growing belief that AI will be critically important to their business success—indeed, almost two-thirds of the executives report that AI technologies enable their companies to establish a lead over the competition.
最近的德勤报告，未来的平衡？根据对来自7个国家的1900名高管的调查，各国如何追求人工智能优势，提供了人工智能早期采用者的全球视角。这些采用者正在加大对人工智能技术的投入，并获得积极的回报。他们表示，越来越多的人相信，人工智能对他们的业务成功至关重要。事实上，近三分之二的高管表示，人工智能技术使他们的公司能够在竞争中确立领先地位。
Globally, three-quarters of respondents agree that human workers and AI technologies will augment each other to produce new ways of working, and that AI empowers their employees to make better decisions. And augmenting and amplifying human intelligence is likely to be only the beginning: According to Deloitte Consulting’s AI-fueled organizations: Reaching AI’s full potential in the enterprise, AI is progressing toward autonomous intelligence, in which processes are digitized and automated to a level where machines and systems can act directly upon the intelligence derived from them, without human involvement.
在全球范围内，四分之三的受访者同意，人工智能技术和人工智能技术将相互促进，产生新的工作方式，人工智能使员工能够做出更好的决策。而增强和放大人类智能可能仅仅是一个开始：根据德勤咨询（Deloitte Consulting）人工智能推动的组织：人工智能在企业中发挥了全部潜力，它正在向自主智能发展，在自主智能中，过程数字化和自动化，达到机器和系统可以直接工作的水平在没有人类参与的情况下，从他们身上获得的智慧。
Remarkably, a majority of early adopters within each country believe that AI will substantially transform their business within the next three years. However, as pointed out in Is the window for AI competitive advantage closing for early adopters?—part of Deloitte’s Thinking Fast series of quick insights9—the early adopters also believe that the transformation of their industry is following close on the heels of their own AI-powered business transformation.10 Globally, there’s a sense of urgency among adopters that now is the time to capitalize on AI, before the window for competitive advantage closes.
值得注意的是，每个国家的大多数早期采用者都相信人工智能将在未来三年内大幅改变他们的业务。然而，正如《人工智能竞争优势的窗口对早期采用者关闭了吗？-德勤快速思考系列快速洞察力的一部分9早期采用者还认为，他们的行业转型紧随着他们自己的人工智能业务转型。10在全球范围内，采用者有一种紧迫感，现在是利用人工智能的时候了，在竞争优势的窗口关闭之前。
However, comparing AI adopters across countries reveals notable differences in AI maturity levels and urgency. While many nations regard AI as crucial to their future competitiveness, these comparisons indicate that some countries are adopting AI aggressively, while others are proceeding with considerable caution—and may be at risk of being left behind.
然而，比较各国人工智能采用者，可以发现人工智能成熟度水平和紧迫性存在显著差异。虽然许多国家认为人工智能对它们未来的竞争力至关重要，但这些比较表明，一些国家正在积极采用人工智能，而另一些国家则相当谨慎，可能会被落在后面。
DI_Capitalizing-on-the-promise-of-AI.pdf
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