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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国零售行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
Overweight the retail sector on positive macro dynamics
We turn positive on the Korean retail sector on the back of expected solid growth
in 2010, led by a full-fledged economic recovery. Simply put, consumers are again
favoring discount stores, turning their focus to the variety of sales items and
product quality. We expect department stores to see solid SSS growth in 2010 as
the recovery in non-luxury products becomes the new growth driver for the
sector. Valuations look compelling, and we recommend Shinsegae as our top Buy.
We also upgrade HDS to Buy from Hold and Lotte Shopping to Hold from Sell.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top picks
Shinsegae (004170.KS),KRW547,000.00 Buy
Lotte Shopping (023530.KS),KRW318,500.00 Hold
HDS (069960.KS),KRW107,500.00 Buy
Companies featured
Shinsegae (004170.KS),KRW547,000.00 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 17.9 18.3 14.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 11.5 9.7
Price/book (x) 2.36 2.33 2.01
Lotte Shopping (023530.KS),KRW318,500.00 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 11.7 12.4 10.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 5.6 5.7
Price/book (x) 0.69 0.78 0.73
HDS (069960.KS),KRW107,500.00 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 11.6 9.9 9.3
EV/EBITDA (x) – 8.8 7.0
Price/book (x) 0.96 1.48 1.29
Global Markets Research Company
Discount stores’ SSS growth to recover in 2010
Our cautious view on discount stores has played out, as the segment had poor
SSS growth performance in 2009. We now turn positive and increase our SSS
growth estimates for three reasons: first, our analysis of recent industry trends
such as slowing new store addition as % YoY growth in 2009 and 2010 suggests
that competition this year will be less intense, with retailers more likely to
consolidate than expand. Second, consumer demand should surprise on the
upside. Monthly sales transactions have been increasing steadily since December
2009, which confirms our thesis that consumers are spending more as the
economic recovery continues. Finally, consumers typically trade up towards
quality (and are less driven by price) as the economy recovers. Thus, we expect
discount stores’ transaction value per purchase to improve in 2010.
Non-luxury products are a new growth driver for department stores
A concern for the market has been slowing SSS growth at department stores due
to last year's high base. We think this concern is more than priced in given the
sector's year-to-date underperformance and we observe that non-luxury products’
SSS growth has started recovering noticeably in 4Q09. YTD department store
sales have grown strongly, with January and February up a combined 9.5% YoY
driven by non-luxury products (e.g. 8.6% for general goods, 9.8% for women’s
apparel and 10% for sports vs. 1.0% for luxury goods, etc.). We expect this trend
to continue on the strongly supported consumer sentiment index.
We raise earnings estimates for retailers
We raise SSS growth assumptions both for discount (from -2–0% to 1.5–2.5%)
and department stores (from 2–3% to 4–5%). Accordingly, we raise Shinsegae’s
sales 1.5% and EPS 9.3%, and we raise Lotte Shopping’s sales forecast by 2.6%
and EPS estimate by 3.3%. For HDS, we marginally raise sales by 1.0% and EPS
by 1.1% with an SSS growth assumption change (Details pp. 2–3).
Buy Shinsegae, raising target prices for HDS and Lotte Shopping
Shinsegae trades at a historical low valuation of 14x P/E, with Lotte and HDS
trading at mid cycle valuations. We expect the sector to re-rate on growing
earnings momentum and ongoing evidence that same store sales growth is
improving. On the back of our earnings upgrades, we raise our target price for
Shinsegae to W671,000 from W627,000 to reflect the value of its life insurance
asset. We also raise our target price on Lotte Shopping to W332,000 from
W240,000. For HDS, we raise the target price to W133,000 from W98,000. Our
valuations are based on Gordon Growth models.
Table of Contents
Executive summary: Turning bullish on the sector ........................ 3
Summary of rating and valuation changes ................................................................................3
Compelling valuations for Shinsegae at historical low ..............................................................3
Summary of earnings revisions.................................................................................................5
Summary of risks ......................................................................................................................6
Discount stores.................................................................................. 7
Consolidation to moderate the speed of declining SSS growth................................................7
Full-fledged consumption recovery driving higher consumer demand .....................................8
Transaction value to improve thanks to consumers trading up on household products .........10
Department stores........................................................................... 12
Solid SSS growth to continue despite high base effect..........................................................12
Rapid recovery of non-luxury goods to offset slowing growth in luxury sales........................12
Improving department store transaction value per purchase..................................................13
Store expansion to be fully digested with strong consumer demand.....................................14
Upside risks to economic conditions............................................. 15
Upside risks to our 2010 PCE forecast ...................................................................................15
Employment conditions to improve, supported by private sector ..........................................16
Household debt manageable; soft landing expected..............................................................17
Valuations ........................................................................................ 19
Raising target prices for all three major retailers.....................................................................19
Risks ......................................................................................................................................20
Shinsegae......................................................................................... 22
Lotte Shopping ................................................................................ 24
HDS................................................................................................... 26
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