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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国化工行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：84
【目录或简介】：
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought Leading
Deutsche Bank's Product Committee deems this report F.I.T.T for investors. We
recently visited 16 European, US and Chinese chemical companies in China. Shortterm
trading is strong and confidence in the stimulus programme and
management of the economy remain high. State support for petrochemicals is the
long-term risk, but doing business in China is easier. Companies best positioned
for growth have a growing consumer focus and/or orientation increasingly inland.
Top picks for China are Linde, BASF & Bayer (Europe), Celanese & DuPont (US).
Fundamental: In-depth review of prospects for Western companies in China
Following our recent China Chemicals Tour we have provided an in-depth
assessment of the prospects of the chemical and industrial gas industry in the
region, with a focus on the exposures of various Western chemical companies
under our coverage to identify short- and long-term growth prospects. In
conclusion, most companies are currently experiencing record levels of demand
and are also displaying continued confidence over the long-term growth prospects
for the region. The differential between domestic demand (strong) and export
markets (still weak) is noticeable and should continue to support those names
building platforms to serve the growing domestic market. There are long-term
issues for China (such as pollution control) which should actually create
opportunities for Western chemical companies. Agriculture is another but the
potential here is very long-term.
Industry: Growing confidence over doing business in China
Compared to our last two visits (2007, 2009) it is noticeable that Western
companies are finding it easier to do business in the region. A greater confidence
over intellectual property recognition is a noticeable shift and most companies are
increasing local R&D – something the state is keen to encourage – with a view to
tailoring product to the local market. A better understanding of governmental
procedure is noted alongside a stronger focus from the state on environmental
issues (and energy efficiency) which appears key in providing some Western
players with on-going competitive edge over locals. What is clear is that
companies with early strategies in China continue to leverage their advantage.
Thematic: Stimulus efforts shift inland and increasingly consumer focused
All companies felt that the stimulus package should continue to deliver support
although the focus is shifting more towards stimulating consumer spending with
the remainder of the fixed asset investment programme heavily weighted towards
the inland regions (in an effort to bridge the inland/seaboard wealth gap in the
country). Nearly all companies we met with felt that management of the economy
is strong and expect only a modest slowdown in growth in H2 10 and 2011
(slowing bank lending, modest RMB appreciation). One long-term negative is the
government’s desire to increase self sufficiency coupled with investment support
which are increasing basic petrochemicals investment (not always with economic
logic) although it is more Japanese/Korean names that are exposed to this.
Thought leading: Many European (and US) names well positioned in China
Of the companies we met with, Linde, BASF and Bayer offer the best ways to
play China in Europe while DSM, Umicore and increasingly Air Liquide are only
just behind. In the US, Celanese and DuPont offer the best access China. We
value companies using DCF or SOTP. Risks include global GDP slowdown, FX, oil.
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Outlook and feedback from China Chemicals Tour ...................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................6
Risks ........................................................................................................................................6
China: Economic review.................................................................... 7
Chinese economy: A modest slowdown of growth expected..................................................7
Stimulus plan – shifting the focus inland and to the consumer...............................................11
Other issues...........................................................................................................................12
Petrochemicals in China.................................................................. 13
Capacity growth set to continue in China ...............................................................................13
Industrial gases summary............................................................... 18
Disciplined growth continues..................................................................................................18
China agriculture outlook ............................................................... 21
Long-term potential.................................................................................................................21
China automotive outlook .............................................................. 24
A strong recovery occurred through 2009 ..............................................................................24
Expect further growth for 2010...............................................................................................25
European companies....................................................................... 27
BASF (Buy, Target: Euro 51). Leveraging an early move advantage .......................................28
Bayer (Buy, Target: Euro 60): A leading low-cost position for MaterialScience ......................33
DSM (Hold, Target: Euro 36): Focusing on local R&D and consumer growth.........................38
Air Liquide (Hold, Target: Euro 84): Developing a strong platform in the region.....................41
AkzoNobel (Hold, Target: Euro 41): A strong focus on the margin .........................................45
Linde (Buy, Target: Euro 100): The leading gas position in China ...........................................47
Syngenta (Buy, Target: CHF 340): A leading position in a fragmented agrochemical market .50
Umicore (Sell, Target: Euro 18): Strong leverage to catalyst growth ......................................52
Chinese companies.......................................................................... 54
Sinofert (Buy, Target: HK$4.5). Leadership in fertilizer distribution .........................................55
Zhejiang Biok K.P. Chemical Company (Not Rated). Glyphosate producer in China...............56
US companies .................................................................................. 57
DuPont (Buy, Target: $38). Diverse competencies align with China’s long-term trends.........58
Dow Chemical (NR). Focus on Performance businesses but coal-to-olefins project takes
shape .....................................................................................................................................61
Praxair (Buy, Target: $90). Focusing on returns and profits ....................................................64
Air Products (Hold, Target: $75). Building a broader Asia growth platform............................67
Celanese (Buy, Target: $40). Low-cost Nanjing complex solidifies Asia centric strategy .......70
Appendix A: Global valuation......................................................... 72
Appendix B: Key economic indicators ........................................... 79
。。。雷~~~
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