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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月加拿大生物燃料行业研究报告
【作者】：加拿大丰业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：74
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Renewable Food- and Non-Food-Based Fuels 2
First-Generation Ethanol Margins Improving 13
Second-Generation Cellulosic Ethanol 19
E85 Ethanol-Blended Gasoline 26
Biodiesel 27
Algae Biofuel Still Very Promising 37
Biomass 47
Advanced Biofuels 49
Bioenergy Conclusions 58
Appendix 1 – Advanced Biofuels Projects 59
Appendix 2 – Biofuels Digest Index 60
Appendix 3 – Algae Companies 61
Appendix 4 – Algae’s Value Chain 62
Renewable Food- and Non-Food-Based Fuels
We separated renewable fuels prospects from our January 2010 Quarterly Fertilizer, Biofuels, and
Chemicals Outlook into another stand-alone report that, for now, will be semi-annual. Numerous new
advanced biofuel developments continue to be announced. We care particularly about fertilizer demand
used for food-based fuels as food-based fuel demand growth was a key reason why fertilizer stocks
soared 500%-1,500% between 2003 and mid-2008. Global biofuel production reached 22 billion gallons
in 2009, with 19 billion gallons being ethanol production. In particular, we are interested in the following
Canadian biofuel companies: Biox (just IPO’d with a C$50 million issue), GreenField Ethanol, Lignol,
Ensyn, Iogen, and Enerkem (just raised C$53.8 million from Waste Management). All of these companies
spoke at our November 2009 Bioenergy Day Conference.
Food Demand for Fuel
About 33% of the incremental 2006-2008 global food demand was used for food for fuel (according
to Mosaic’s CEO). U.S. corn-based ethanol demand soared as at May 5, 2005, when the U.S. government
stopped protecting oil and gas refiners and distributors from class action MTBE lawsuit legal liability if
they continued to spill gasoline containing methanol-based MTBE (methyl tert-butyl ether). Ethanol had
only 15% market share at that time and MTBE had 85%. Since then ethanol captured most of MTBE’s
market share, which led to ethanol prices spiking from $2/gal to $5/gal. In turn, this led to the surge of
U.S. ethanol IPOs, including Aventine, Pacific Ethanol, and VeraSun. They all went bankrupt in 2009
because of weak margins, leverage, and/or poor corn procurement or hedging practices. On March 16,
2010, Aventine emerged from bankruptcy.
Producers’ mostly corn-based ethanol plants are now running again as margins have improved with
April 2010 corn prices slumping to $3.50/bu from $4.25/bu in late December 2009, with oil still close to
$80/bbl. A number of plants have and continue to be sold to others for as low as 25% replacement cost
new (Valero bought seven ethanol plants from VeraSun at that price).
Biofuel Research
Fertilizer analysts and investors are now
forced to understand the future of
biofuels if they are to accurately assess
the demand for food and, therefore,
fertilizer (Exhibit 1). For more information
on Scotia’s effort to do so, please refer to
our January 2009 report titled The Choice of
Next-Generation Biofuels and our November
2009 report Biofuels Outlook – Explosive
Growth and Development Continue. Our
November 24, 2009, Bioenergy Day 2009
conference featured Canada’s biggest
renewable biofuels and renewable bio-power
players. For details, refer to our November
2009 conference summary report Bioenergy
Day 2009 – “Bioenergy Opportunities”.
Until 2012, generation one U.S. and Canadian food-based biofuels should still have good growth
prospects of about 10%-15% annual growth for 2011 and 2012. This is, however, hugely dependent
on the spot unleaded gasoline price differential with the spot corn-based ethanol price. Peak 2005-2008
growth levels were 30% per year for ethanol and 60% per year for biodiesel. We and others continue
to believe that generation one biofuels may see their growth profiles ease further towards zero as of
2012 when the United States caps generation one food for fuel.
We have yet to see one statement from or have one interview with an oil and gas company that
supports food-based biofuels. We believe they are, however, all interested in second-generation, more
sustainable fuels. They already support myriad second- and third-generation fuel technologies. Active
oil and gas biofuels leaders include Shell, Chevron, BP, Valero, Petrobras, and, more recently,
ExxonMobil. This could negatively weigh on fertilizer-supported food demand for generation one
biofuels, and therefore on fertilizer stock valuations over time.
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