2010年4月印度IT行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度IT行业研究报告
        【作者】：SSKI证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：53
        【目录或简介】：

The dust has settled on the financial crisis and the faltering global IT spend appears more likely to resume
than not (a 3% increase in 2010E). Business confidence is returning but customers look to offshoring to
seek more bang for the buck as budget strings are still tight. Over the last few quarters, Indian IT services
companies, especially tier1, have shown marked improvement in their financial performance. Large deals
are once again finding their way to tier1 players and in the next leg of demand traction, we expect the ‘notso-
large’ deals to percolate to mid-tier companies. While mid-tier companies catch up with larger peers in
terms of growth in the coming quarters, can their valuations be far behind? Most mid-tier stocks are
trading at 9-12x FY11E EPS – at a steep discount to tier1. We see a promise of up to 50% returns by our midtier
basket, led by a combination of multiple re-rating (to 12-15x) and earnings growth. However, unlike
the larger peers, these companies face the risk of getting marginalized in case of vendor consolidation
process at clients’ end. We initiate coverage on mid-tier names with a good revenue mix and ability to
benefit from the return of discretionary spend. We rate KPIT Cummins, MindTree and Mphasis as
Outperformer and Hexaware as Neutral given near-term challenges. KPIT and MindTree are our top picks.
Strong performance from tier1 underpins return of demand…: After 2-4%qoq growth in organic revenues in
Q2FY10, Infosys, TCS and Wipro have reported 6-7%qoq growth in Q3 – an otherwise seasonally weak
quarter. As IT spend grows at an estimated 3-5% and the accelerated offshore adoption phenomenon plays
out, we expect Indian IT companies to grow at 20-25% over the next two years.
…mid-tier companies waiting in the wings: Mid-tier IT companies usually show revenue and earnings
traction with a lag to tier1 peers as the latter are better-placed to benefit from a recovery. However, with tier1
focusing on more profitable deals and as their growth gets constrained by supply side dynamics, improving
demand does eventually percolate to tier2 names with strong business models. With tier1 having already set
firmly on the growth path, we expect mid-tier IT companies to start showing improvement from mid-2010.
Significant discount to tier1 valuations; potential for strong returns: Tier1 stocks trade at 21-22x FY11E
earnings – closer to median valuations, while tier2 stocks are languishing in the range of 9-12x – much below
their median valuations. Over the next 18-24 months, we expect our basket of mid-tier stocks to return 40-70%
from current levels led by valuation re-rating and earnings growth. A double-dip recession and sharp INR
appreciation are key risks to our call. We initiate coverage on Mphasis (a potential tier1) and three mid-tier
stocks – MindTree, KPIT Cummins and Hexaware.

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 IT行业 研究报告 Appreciation 研究报告 行业 印度