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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月澳大利亚上市公司研究汇总
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：393
【目录或简介】：
Contents
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
April 16, 2010
Research Digest – Autumn Edition
Introduction
Australia Research Team............................................................................................................................................. 2
Australia Coverage Universe: Upside / Downside to Price Target................................................................................ 4
Australia Economics: A shape-shifting recovery........................................................................................................... 6
Australia Strategy: Market uninspiring: Continue to focus on stock specifics............................................................... 8
Company Analysis.........................................................................................................................................11
Appendix
Australia Coverage Universe: Valuation Comparison............................................................................................... 358
Valuation Methodology & Risks ............................................................................................................................... 363
Australia Coverage Universe: Upside / Downside to Price Target
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
April 16, 2010
Research Digest – Autumn Edition
Page Close price Price Up/Down to Bull Bear
no. Company name Ticker Rating Currency (9 Apr 2010) target price target value value
12 AGL Energy Ltd AGK.AX OW A$ 15.250 16.17 6.0% 19.34 8.98
15 Alumina Limited AWC.AX OW A$ 1.860 2.25 21.0% 3.46 1.03
18 AMP Limited AMP.AX OW A$ 6.370 7.04 10.5% 8.10 5.64
21 Ansell ANN.AX OW A$ 12.010 13.32 10.9% 16.03 10.35
24 ANZ Bank ANZ.AX EW A$ 25.150 25.00 -0.6% 30.06 20.37
27 APA Group APA.AX EW A$ 3.590 3.52 -1.9% 4.27 3.09
30 API API.AX OW A$ 0.600 0.75 25.0% 1.09 0.38
33 APN News & Media Ltd. APN.AX UW A$ 2.270 2.10 -7.5% 3.00 1.50
36 Aristocrat Leisure Limited ALL.AX EW A$ 4.540 4.45 -2.0% 4.90 3.55
39 Asciano Group AIO.AX OW A$ 1.850 2.25 21.6% 2.70 1.40
42 ASX Limited ASX.AX EW A$ 34.070 34.30 0.7% 46.87 29.85
45 Auckland International Airport Ltd AIA.NZ EW NZ$ 2.020 1.92 -5.0% 2.60 1.15
48 Austar United Communications Ltd AUN.AX UW A$ 1.200 1.10 -8.3% 1.70 0.80
51 Austereo Limited AEO.AX OW A$ 1.775 2.00 12.7% 2.50 1.00
54 Australian Infrastructure Fund Ltd. AIX.AX EW A$ 1.990 1.76 -11.6% 2.65 1.00
57 Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd AWE.AX EW A$ 2.840 3.00 5.6% 4.19 1.52
60 AXA Asia Pac Holdings Ltd AXA.AX EW A$ 6.330 6.43 1.6% 7.65 4.51
63 Bank of Queensland BOQ.AX EW A$ 12.000 11.90 -0.8% 15.60 9.20
66 Beach Petroleum Ltd BPT.AX UW A$ 0.765 0.60 -21.6% 0.78 0.45
69 Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited BEN.AX UW A$ 10.040 9.60 -4.4% 13.40 7.30
72 BHP Billiton Limited BHP.AX ++ A$ 43.900 ++ na ++ ++
74 Billabong BBG.AX OW A$ 11.240 15.00 33.5% 19.00 10.00
77 Brambles Ltd. BXB.AX EW A$ 7.150 6.75 -5.6% 8.50 5.00
80 Caltex Australia Ltd CTX.AX EW A$ 12.600 11.20 -11.1% 14.40 7.00
83 Centennial Coal CEY.AX OW A$ 4.520 5.23 15.7% 7.02 2.72
86 CFS Retail Property Trust CFX.AX OW A$ 1.865 2.30 23.3% 2.90 1.70
89 Charter Hall Office REIT CQO.AX OW A$ 0.285 0.35 22.8% 0.46 0.26
92 Coca-Cola Amatil CCL.AX OW A$ 11.530 11.50 -0.3% 12.80 9.40
95 Cochlear COH.AX EW A$ 74.080 64.30 -13.2% 92.70 45.56
98 Commonwealth Bk Aust CBA.AX UW A$ 58.140 54.50 -6.3% 65.38 41.92
101 Commonwealth Property Office Fund CPA.AX EW A$ 0.930 1.00 7.5% 1.42 0.81
104 Computershare Limited CPU.AX OW A$ 12.640 14.10 11.6% 17.87 11.09
107 ConnectEast Group CEU.AX EW A$ 0.460 0.44 -4.3% 0.56 0.25
110 Crown Limited CWN.AX OW A$ 8.330 9.00 8.0% 11.00 6.80
113 CSL Ltd CSL.AX EW A$ 36.000 33.12 -8.0% 40.25 24.04
116 David Jones Limited DJS.AX UW A$ 4.700 4.60 -2.1% 6.00 3.30
119 Dexus DXS.AX OW A$ 0.830 0.95 14.5% 1.20 0.60
122 Downer EDI Ltd. DOW.AX OW A$ 7.350 8.80 19.7% 11.95 5.25
125 DUET Group DUE.AX EW A$ 1.820 1.88 3.3% 2.37 1.39
128 Eastern Star ESG.AX OW A$ 1.015 1.00 -1.5% 1.78 0.70
131 Envestra Ltd ENV.AX EW A$ 0.545 0.46 -15.6% 0.63 0.42
134 Equinox Minerals Limited EQN.AX OW A$ 4.570 5.15 12.7% 6.62 3.79
137 Fairfax Media FXJ.AX OW A$ 1.790 2.20 22.9% 3.00 1.20
140 Fortescue Metals FMG.AX EW A$ 5.010 5.15 2.8% 7.64 2.29
143 Foster's Group FGL.AX OW A$ 5.480 6.50 18.6% 7.58 4.95
146 Geodynamics GDY.AX EW A$ 0.635 0.88 38.6% 2.66 0.58
149 Gloucester Coal Limited GCL.AX EW A$ 12.200 11.07 -9.3% 13.02 8.16
152 Goodman Fielder GFF.AX UW A$ 1.440 1.20 -16.7% 1.65 0.62
155 GPT Group GPT.AX EW A$ 0.580 0.65 12.1% 0.85 0.52
158 Harvey Norman HVN.AX OW A$ 3.700 4.70 27.0% 5.40 3.00
161 Healthscope HSP.AX EW A$ 4.530 4.83 6.6% 5.38 4.44
164 Iluka Resources Ltd ILU.AX OW A$ 4.900 5.49 12.0% 7.37 3.42
167 ING Office Fund IOF.AX OW A$ 0.605 0.70 15.7% 0.92 0.50
170 Insurance Australia Group IAG.AX EW A$ 3.910 4.33 10.7% 4.80 3.64
173 Intoll Group ITO.AX EW A$ 1.115 1.10 -1.3% 1.45 0.85
176 JB Hi-Fi Limited JBH.AX OW A$ 20.220 23.00 13.7% 32.00 16.00
179 Karoon Gas Australia KAR.AX OW A$ 8.250 9.80 18.8% 23.81 5.45
182 Leighton Holdings Ltd. LEI.AX OW A$ 38.230 47.50 24.2% 59.75 25.79
185 Lihir LGL.AX EW A$ 3.990 3.87 -3.0% 5.05 1.95
no. Company name Ticker Rating Currency (9 Apr 2010) target price target value value
188 Macarthur Coal MCC.AX OW A$ 15.550 13.17 -15.3% 15.50 9.72
191 Macquarie Group Limited MQG.AX OW A$ 49.370 60.60 22.7% 70.90 43.30
194 MAp MAP.AX EW A$ 3.180 3.15 -0.9% 3.75 1.90
197 Metcash Trading Ltd. MTS.AX EW A$ 4.230 4.50 6.4% 5.60 3.70
200 Minara Resources MRE.AX EW A$ 0.970 0.92 -5.2% 1.36 0.05
203 Mirvac Group MGR.AX UW A$ 1.435 1.55 8.0% 1.90 1.00
206 Myer MYR.AX EW A$ 3.350 3.50 4.5% 5.20 2.50
209 Nat Aust Bank NAB.AX EW A$ 27.600 26.80 -2.9% 34.79 18.84
212 New Zealand Oil & Gas NZO.AX EW A$ 1.240 1.20 -3.2% 1.44 0.99
215 Newcrest Mining NCM.AX OW A$ 35.630 39.45 10.7% 61.88 24.90
218 Oil Search Ltd. OSH.AX OW A$ 6.010 6.00 -0.2% 11.91 4.58
221 Origin Energy Ltd. ORG.AX EW A$ 16.870 13.50 -20.0% 17.92 11.50
224 OZ Minerals OZL.AX OW A$ 1.220 1.38 13.1% 1.60 1.19
227 Pacific Brands PBG.AX OW A$ 1.335 1.60 19.9% 2.50 0.70
230 PanAust Limited PNA.AX OW A$ 0.555 0.80 44.1% 0.99 0.57
233 Perpetual Ltd. PPT.AX EW A$ 36.170 39.15 8.2% 45.38 27.74
236 Premier Investments PMV.AX OW A$ 7.530 9.00 19.5% 13.50 7.50
239 Primary Health Care Ltd. PRY.AX EW A$ 4.350 4.71 8.3% 7.44 3.51
242 Qantas Airways QAN.AX OW A$ 2.870 3.45 20.2% 4.80 2.00
245 QBE Insurance Group QBE.AX EW A$ 21.120 22.40 6.1% 26.69 17.01
248 Ramsay Health Care RHC.AX EW A$ 14.150 13.32 -5.9% 14.25 9.59
251 REA Group Limited REA.AX OW A$ 12.140 11.50 -5.3% 15.00 7.50
254 Resmed Inc. RMD.N OW US$ 61.380 63.09 2.8% 74.67 56.61
257 Rio Tinto Ltd RIO.AX ++ A$ 79.470 ++ na ++ ++
259 Riversdale Mining Limited RIV.AX EW A$ 9.770 7.94 -18.7% 8.88 5.98
262 ROC Oil Company ROC.AX OW A$ 0.405 0.60 48.1% 1.22 0.33
265 Santos STO.AX EW A$ 14.880 13.00 -12.6% 26.60 8.41
268 SEEK Limited SEK.AX OW A$ 8.000 7.50 -6.3% 10.00 5.00
271 Seven Network Limited SEV.AX UW A$ 7.420 6.20 -16.4% 10.00 5.00
274 Sigma Pharmaceuticals SIP.AX EW A$ 0.470 0.53 12.8% 1.22 0.24
277 Sonic Healthcare Limited SHL.AX OW A$ 14.480 15.87 9.6% 18.16 12.45
280 SP AusNet SPN.AX OW A$ 0.905 0.91 0.6% 1.11 0.81
283 Spark Infrastructure SKI.AX EW A$ 1.245 1.19 -4.4% 1.79 0.98
286 Stockland SGP.AX UW A$ 3.970 3.80 -4.3% 5.35 2.85
289 Suncorp-Metway SUN.AX UW A$ 8.760 8.38 -4.3% 10.78 6.92
292 Tabcorp Holdings Limited TAH.AX UW A$ 7.030 6.80 -3.3% 9.61 5.90
295 Tatts Group Limited TTS.AX EW A$ 2.440 2.40 -1.6% 3.10 1.80
298 Telecom NZ TEL.NZ EW NZ$ 2.210 2.95 33.5% 4.27 1.47
301 Telstra Corporation TLS.AX OW A$ 3.090 3.65 18.1% 4.63 2.88
304 Ten Network Holdings TEN.AX OW A$ 1.830 2.20 20.2% 3.00 1.20
307 Toll Holdings TOL.AX EW A$ 7.380 7.00 -5.1% 10.40 4.75
310 TOWER Australia TAL.AX OW A$ 2.740 3.41 24.5% 4.05 2.72
313 Tower Ltd. TWR.NZ UW NZ$ 2.000 1.80 -10.0% 2.35 1.62
316 Transpacific Industries Group Ltd. TPI.AX OW A$ 1.365 1.85 35.5% 2.27 0.72
319 Transurban Group TCL.AX EW A$ 5.150 5.50 6.8% 6.25 4.00
322 UGL Ltd. UGL.AX EW A$ 15.050 15.40 2.3% 18.78 9.47
325 Virgin Blue VBA.AX OW A$ 0.710 0.72 1.4% 1.10 0.30
328 Wesfarmers WES.AX EW A$ 31.900 33.50 5.0% 40.50 28.00
331 West Australian Newspapers WAN.AX UW A$ 7.990 6.75 -15.5% 9.75 4.50
334 Western Areas NL WSA.AX OW A$ 5.590 7.11 27.2% 11.50 3.63
337 Westfield Group WDC.AX UW A$ 12.000 12.80 6.7% 19.10 9.80
340 Westpac Banking WBC.AX OW A$ 27.720 28.00 1.0% 32.84 23.07
343 Whitehaven Coal Limited WHC.AX EW A$ 5.790 5.49 -5.2% 6.83 3.56
346 Woodside Petroleum WPL.AX OW A$ 47.500 52.50 10.5% 66.08 39.62
349 Woolworths Ltd WOW.AX EW A$ 28.520 28.50 -0.1% 36.30 24.00
352 WorleyParsons Ltd. WOR.AX OW A$ 26.600 31.50 18.4% 46.25 19.00
355 Wotif.com Holdings Limited WTF.AX EW A$ 7.690 6.50 -15.5% 10.00 4.20
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