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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球气候研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Global Climate Change
Economics Will Trump Politics
Climate change – heavy on talk; light on agreement:
The failure of the Copenhagen talks was not a surprise –
there is insufficient incentive for developed and
developing countries to agree on a common road map to
climate change mitigation. While countries share a
common atmosphere, each has its own economic and
political priorities. Hence, we believe that ultimately it will
be the economics of climate change mitigation (driven
by technology development and fossil fuel outlook), job
creation and an equitable establishment of cost of
green-house gases (GHG) that lead to significant
progress being achieved.
What are the right measures? Developed countries
have long argued for a reduction in absolute levels of
GHG emissions, that ignores historical emissions.
However, developing countries argue for targets based
on emission intensity (GHG per unit of GDP). Different
base comparison years (earlier years for developed
countries) and the funding (by developed countries) of a
technology development fund may be ways for everyone
on the table to agree.
Energy efficiency vs alternative energy sources:
Energy efficiency improvements may be as significant
as the use of non-fossil energy to meet emission goals.
However, energy efficiency and carbon capture (even if
viable), may not be adequate. Wind, solar and tidal are
intermittent sources of power and hence need to be
complemented by adequate predictable sources. Hence,
it may be difficult to achieve emission targets without a
significant contribution from nuclear power.
The power of IT in energy management: Driven by
Moore’s Law and the Internet, the IT industry has
witnessed tremendous breakthroughs over the past two
decades. Now, IT will be harnessed to the management
of energy demand and generation in order to drive
greater productivity from existing energy assets.
A global cast: EU leads the way in policy terms; Asia is
the world’s workshop for low cost manufacturing of
established technologies; the US has a crucial role in
developing energy management technologies.
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