2010年4月全球贵金属展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球贵金属展望
        【作者】：TD newcrest
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：

Precious Metals Outlook
Jaguar Mining -- Tour of Iron Quadrangle Operations
This past week, we had the opportunity to tour Jaguar’s gold operations surrounding
Belo Horiztone including Turmalina, Paciencia, and Caete. After a disappointing
Q1, Jaguar’s operations do appear to now be on track to resume growth, with an
additional mine coming on-line at Paciencia, resumption of an open-pit operation at
Turmalina, and the new Caete plant expected to be operational by May/June 2010.
In general we were impressed by the local operating team Jaguar has in place. Their
ability to execute permitting, underground development, and construction of new
mines is impressive. However we believe the reporting of information such as
production schedules and updated reserve/resource statements is a challenge with
production expectations remaining overly aggressive in our view, and resource
statements that need to catch up to exploration and mine development. We currently
have a HOLD recommendation and C$12.00 price target on Jaguar

Part of the reason for the production miss in Q4 and Q1 was the inability to
access high grade ore in one of the two open pits on Zone C, which grades in
excess of 5 g/t, due to heavy rains. This is being dewatered now and should
start to have a positive impact in Q2.
• Another difficulty experienced in 2009 was excessive dilution using the
sublevel stoping mining method – they are currently trying a new modified cut
and fill method, which they believe will improve dilution and grades. This is
now being employed – the company is targeting dilution in the single digits,
down from the approximately 15%+ previously experienced.
• Reserve grades fell 25% this year (from 5.17 g/t to 3.87 g/t) in part because
much of the exploration concentrated on the C zone at depth. This year they
intend to do more work on the B and A zones (which typically grade in excess
of 5 g/t), which should improve reserve grades going forward. However given
the 25% decline in grade with no increase in total ounces, we do not think this
fully explains the decline. We believe a higher dilution estimate partially
explains the difference.
• Despite the lower reserve grade, Jaguar maintains that they will maintain
higher grade throughput largely because the effective cut-off grade they
employ (approx. 2.5 g/t) is well above the 1.5 g/t cut-off used in the reserve
estimate. They expect higher grades to continue at depth, which is not an
unreasonable assumption given the continuity of the veins in this gold camp.

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关键词：贵金属 Construction Expectations concentrated Development 全球 展望 贵金属