2010年4月日本精密行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本精密行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：109
        【目录或简介】：


Sector stance: We reiterate the Bullish stance on the precision instruments
sector that we articulated in the spring edition of this report, and for largely the
same reasons. First, many sector companies have products with leading global
market shares. Second, sector companies have significantly lowered their
breakeven points through structural reforms. Third, we expect M&A to alter
their earnings structures. However, we think growth rates in various markets,
along with corporate profit growth, will reach a peak in the April-June quarter,
so we think sector share prices could correct for a time.
• Top picks are Fujifilm Holdings and Tokyo Electron: Our top
recommendations are Fujifilm Holdings in precision instruments and Tokyo
Electron in SPE. We are also bullish on Citizen Holdings and Nikon. We think
Fujifilm could set new RoE records in FY2011-FY2012. We think Tokyo
Electron’s orders will not peak until January-March 2011, so we believe the
stock could enjoy a long uptrend.
• Market outlook: Forecasting positive growth for multifunction printer
market, delayed capex peak: We forecast 13.7% YoY growth for the
multifunction printer market, fueled by a recovery in corporate capex. Growth in
the office and accounting equipment component of US GDP turned positive in
the October-December 2009 quarter, rising 12.0% YoY to $10.2 billion. We
think similar recoveries will be confirmed going forward, first in Japan and then
in Europe. We now believe the peak for semiconductor capex could be pushed
back into the first half of 2011. We forecast 37% volume growth for the
exposure system market in 2011, but our bottom-up estimate of capex in 2009
shows a 9.3% increase. Given the gap between these two figures, we think capex
forecasts for 2011 may rise going forward.
• Outlook for 4Q results: On March 18 and 19, we spoke by phone with officials
at the 22 companies in our coverage about the state of January-March earnings,
and revised our estimates accordingly. We then compared our revised earnings
estimates with IFIS consensus forecasts and ranked companies in order of the
size of the gap. With earnings season poised to get under way next week, we
have attempted in our forecast revisions to be as accurate as we can. However,
surprises are always possible: some companies have poor disclosure, others may
see a spike in demand in March, and still others could incur unanticipated costs
or see competition intensify unexpectedly. With these points in mind, we think
the companies whose results could diverge from guidance include Ricoh,
Yokogawa Electric, Ushio, and Olympus.

Table of Contents
January-March 2010 Results Outlook................................................... 3
FY2010 Earnings Forecasts .................................................................. 6
Recommendations............................................................................... 10
Market Forecasts ................................................................................. 13
Fujifilm Holdings (4901) .................................................................... 30
Konica Minolta Holdings (4902) ........................................................ 34
Seiko Epson (6724)............................................................................. 41
Casio Computer (6952)....................................................................... 44
Shimadzu (7701) ................................................................................. 47
Olympus (7733) .................................................................................. 50
Tamron (7740) .................................................................................... 53
HOYA (7741) ..................................................................................... 56
Canon (7751)....................................................................................... 59
Ricoh (7752) ....................................................................................... 64
Citizen Holdings (7762)...................................................................... 68
Disco (6146)........................................................................................ 71
Ulvac (6728) ....................................................................................... 74
Yokogawa Electric (6841) .................................................................. 78
Horiba (6856)...................................................................................... 81
Advantest (6857)................................................................................. 84
Ushio (6925) ....................................................................................... 87
Tokyo Seimitsu (7729)........................................................................ 90
Nikon (7731) ....................................................................................... 93
Dainippon Screen Mfg. (7735) ........................................................... 96
Tokyo Electron (8035) ...................................................................... 100
Hitachi High-Technologies (8036) ................................................... 103

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