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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国新能源行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：30
【目录或简介】：
Quantifying carbon emissions and the energy mix: As part of our
contribution to Credit Suisse’s efforts in the alternative energy space, we
turn our attention to China, which has set itself a goal of cutting the CO2
emission per unit GDP by at least 40% compared to the 2005 level by 2020.
Supportive policies are already in place and is not new to the market.
However, we have gone a step further in quantifying the carbon emission for
each energy source and the non-coal energy mix needed under different
primary energy scenarios.
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Achievable goals but lots to do: If the CAGR of China’s primary energy
was 5% (2009-20), then based on Credit Suisse’s current estimates of noncoal
energy supply growth, China would be able to achieve its goals.
However, given the current energy mix of coal, it would take exponentially
more non-coal sources if primary energy growth was higher.
■
Key beneficiaries: There are two implications. First, China’s current
conservative targets for alternative energy (nuclear, wind, etc.) will have to
be revised up. Second, unless there is clear risk of equipment oversupply,
fears of policy tightening is unfounded. Gas operators could worry less about
margin squeeze, given the role they play in expanding gas usage. Major
nuclear equipment makers would gain long-term order flow and learning
experience. We prefer wind farm operators as they have mandatory grid
sales and transparent tariff structure. The gas sector (CR Gas, Xinao),
nuclear equipment makers (SEG, Dongfang), and major windfarm operators
are directly exposed to this theme.
Weighing the low-carbon options
China has made some progress in reducing its energy intensity (consumption per unit
GDP) since its peak in 2004. We look at the sensitivity to change in the primary energy
mix and efficiency gains needed under different scenarios to meet its CO2 emission
reduction targets. We highlight the sector beneficiaries. For a list of our global work on
Alternative Energy and our upcoming Alternative Energy conference, please refer
Appendix II.
CO2 to GDP reduction: achievable – but lots to do
Despite the inconclusive outcome at the Copenhagen climate conference, China has
reiterated its commitment to reduce energy intensity and cut its CO2 emission per unit
GDP by 40-45% compared to the 2005 level by 2020. Coal is 69% of China’s primary
energy mix, but has contributed 83% of its CO2 emission in 2009. According to the IEA
report on global CO2 emission, on an emission per unit energy usage, China’s CO2
emission per unit coal usage is 54% and 87% higher than that of oil and gas, respectively.
China’s primary energy CAGR was 8.4% during 2005-08. Based on its current energy mix
and our long-term forecast for non-coal energy sources (oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, and wind),
we look at the implied coal demand and CO2 emission (in tonnes) under different
scenarios of primary energy growth of between 5% and 8% CAGR in 2009-20E.
Intuitively, it is not surprising to see that, given China’s current coal usage, it would take
exponentially more non-coal related energy sources versus our long-term forecast if
primary energy growth was higher (i.e., 8% versus 5% CAGR). In addition, China’s coal
CO2 per unit energy would also have to be lower to meet the reduction targets. In
conclusion, supportive policies on cutting energy intensity (to GDP), encouraging the use
of non-coal alternative energy sources and new technologies that help reduce carbon
emission of coal users (e.g., power plants and industrial sector) will have to continue.
Key beneficiaries
In China’s case, the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix will have to rise to
meet its CO2 emission goals by 2020. Given the fragmented ownership structure of the
gas utilities (private and quasi-government versus centrally controlled national upstream
majors), we believe that the government will need to provide supportive policies (i.e.,
allowing gas price pass through) so as to encourage network build-out. Our pick within the
sector is CR Gas, with high quality gas utilities portfolio and M&A optionality potential.
Within the China nuclear value chain, the investable universe is major equipment suppliers
(SEG, Dongfang and Harbin) as nuclear operators (CNNC, CGNPC and CPI Group) are
not listed. Equipment suppliers should benefit from nuclear power capacity rising to 84 GW
by 2020 (or 22% CAGR in energy output terms). This implies a revenue potential of at
least Rmb300-450 bn for the major suppliers in the next ten years. Major nuclear
equipment makers (SEG and Dongfang Electric) are directly exposed to this theme.
We expect China wind power capacity to reach 122 GW by 2020 (or 19% CAGR in energy
output terms). A transparent tariff structure, better economics and RPS (renewable energy
standard) targets for large IPP groups have led to a massive build-out. While the long-term
revenue potential is large, massive near-term over capacity of the equipment sector is a
near-term concern. For wind farm operators, although capex and execution risks (on
meeting targeted load-factor) are high, they are company specific risks. Longyuan is the
only large and dedicated wind farm operator.
Reducing the carbon intensity per unit coal consumption would be a key objective. This
involves: 1) shutting down of small coal-fired plants, 2) investment in large ultra supercritical
(>1 GW), and 3) the improvement in the grid’s transmission efficiency. Key
beneficiaries of this objective include the larger power equipment makers (SEG, Harbin
and Dongfang).
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